Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105988 17477 1046 1670 776 45 0 0
OW 71 1175 392 1587 1644 294 0 0
VODI 2 458 253 1269 2034 891 1 0
ODI 0 9 13 255 864 1119 39 0
CDI 0 0 1 107 573 1633 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 601 6553 18999 18987
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107638 14784 678 1080 461 221 16 0
OW 76 1263 439 1552 1215 199 31 0
VODI 0 500 270 1423 2331 799 54 0
ODI 0 75 73 453 1415 876 47 0
CDI 0 7 19 200 745 1458 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 98 866 7404 19945 18248
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107981 14921 907 1284 228 41 0 0
OW 4 473 312 1182 454 46 0 0
VODI 0 48 59 1079 1840 173 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 227 2509 1473 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 97 1164 4094 61 1
VCDI 0 0 0 6 339 7024 21233 17778
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106716 13448 937 1514 258 78 8 0
OW 7 348 266 1607 777 116 10 0
VODI 0 28 64 851 1417 701 74 0
ODI 0 0 3 199 1431 1758 206 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 933 4350 682 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 661 7454 18052 22003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106697 13289 919 1642 338 75 7 0
OW 26 502 274 1439 698 187 10 0
VODI 0 33 73 887 1425 559 47 0
ODI 0 0 4 197 1351 1715 203 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 973 4130 478 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 692 7791 18287 22003

Date: 2023-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104705 13133 889 1739 473 59 20 0
OW 9 231 211 1419 1070 108 20 0
VODI 0 7 40 624 1691 1080 54 0
ODI 0 0 2 177 673 1784 269 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 489 3793 1183 17
VCDI 0 0 0 9 237 7506 18011 25247
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104694 12940 860 1900 530 67 21 0
OW 20 411 227 1248 913 173 19 0
VODI 0 20 52 639 1838 950 47 0
ODI 0 0 3 168 670 1703 216 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 453 3410 1070 4
VCDI 0 0 0 10 229 8027 18184 25260

Date: 2023-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101430 14840 861 1452 521 71 4 0
OW 13 63 150 1013 371 42 8 0
VODI 0 0 6 952 1233 68 23 0
ODI 0 0 0 154 1993 736 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 618 6374 440 35
VCDI 0 0 0 8 132 3883 20115 29395
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101433 14443 823 2061 1038 132 34 0
OW 10 393 129 814 1080 158 21 0
VODI 0 67 64 454 1425 1532 82 0
ODI 0 0 1 186 499 1748 295 8
CDI 0 0 0 56 522 2222 1091 331
VCDI 0 0 0 31 304 5382 19088 29091

Date: 2023-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101574 13225 912 1386 667 245 30 0
OW 17 174 163 851 483 164 19 0
VODI 0 29 51 556 1033 527 33 0
ODI 0 5 4 228 949 969 90 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 960 2518 1009 17
VCDI 0 0 0 18 217 5111 17672 35080
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101573 12605 750 1514 1123 424 76 0
OW 18 747 286 663 627 424 50 0
VODI 0 78 85 548 1212 1335 374 0
ODI 0 3 9 198 584 1519 588 0
CDI 0 0 0 131 459 1380 1344 134
VCDI 0 0 0 47 304 4452 16421 34963

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100970 12636 770 1247 772 228 20 0
OW 38 341 167 832 520 306 21 0
VODI 0 84 92 586 786 332 32 0
ODI 0 7 29 280 948 634 71 0
CDI 0 0 0 104 1068 1359 459 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 979 5889 19532 34893
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100930 12175 715 1286 1151 540 54 0
OW 65 607 206 784 453 299 56 0
VODI 13 260 95 664 1087 954 143 0
ODI 0 26 42 224 878 1266 549 18
CDI 0 0 0 87 695 1242 1169 51
VCDI 0 0 0 4 809 4447 18164 34840


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