Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-10-19

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-23

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 202 43 65 42 17 1 0
OW 0 69 20 77 44 11 1 0
VODI 0 56 23 85 91 22 5 0
ODI 0 82 25 87 69 75 7 0
CDI 0 36 15 110 127 132 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 521 3798 13531 17326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 174 33 77 54 14 0 0
OW 0 90 18 64 37 11 1 0
VODI 0 62 35 79 66 17 3 0
ODI 0 82 24 90 91 78 5 0
CDI 0 37 16 109 126 142 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 82 520 3793 13536 17326

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 653 467 23 41 3 0 0 0
OW 0 112 20 140 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 10 133 147 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 104 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 497 687 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 653 447 17 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 134 27 141 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 9 156 201 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 58 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 60 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 494 687 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 819 2522 166 356 226 154 6 0
OW 0 13 19 66 96 70 9 0
VODI 0 1 2 44 88 213 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 125 279 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 57 204 143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 640 2625 987
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 819 2505 152 322 169 151 3 0
OW 0 31 26 94 109 37 10 0
VODI 0 0 9 53 179 220 16 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 120 280 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 288 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 584 2645 987

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 759 3316 131 165 4 0 0 0
OW 0 43 27 83 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 11 112 63 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 85 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 108 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 141 434 62 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 758 3324 133 139 0 0 0 0
OW 1 36 29 108 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 121 76 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 100 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 138 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 105 424 62 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 865 95 235 250 32 0 0
OW 0 329 52 157 268 87 0 0
VODI 0 204 83 300 643 435 0 0
ODI 0 33 26 148 531 459 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 18 194 273 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 1103 352 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 971 105 217 126 0 0 0
OW 0 286 60 211 352 75 0 0
VODI 0 155 78 275 688 467 0 0
ODI 0 20 13 142 621 514 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 163 342 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 991 348 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 11 11 0 0
OW 0 0 0 118 147 141 0 0
VODI 0 38 19 244 433 571 0 0
ODI 0 38 17 149 272 264 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 195 198 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 159 757 1498 3
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 36 103 74 0 0
OW 0 0 0 158 127 177 0 0
VODI 0 71 25 190 337 561 0 0
ODI 0 5 11 141 356 244 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 168 244 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 126 642 1495 3

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2247 1998 69 167 31 0 0 0
OW 110 203 52 281 167 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 15 98 260 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 13 172 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 103 113 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 131 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2307 1941 74 259 40 0 0 0
OW 50 270 42 216 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 20 70 324 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 13 158 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 78 113 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 103 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9698 1437 26 21 5 0 0 0
OW 0 45 6 16 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 9 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 6 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9695 1428 25 22 4 0 0 0
OW 3 49 7 14 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 9 1 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 7 5 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6261 2488 74 99 78 83 0 0
OW 0 43 48 45 28 48 0 0
VODI 0 31 23 95 10 65 0 0
ODI 0 5 9 59 38 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 39 131 136 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 76 860 777 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6261 2469 93 103 64 70 0 0
OW 0 45 27 63 20 42 0 0
VODI 0 34 18 71 38 65 0 0
ODI 0 18 13 51 44 49 0 0
CDI 0 1 5 45 111 114 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 84 896 777 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11837 1048 24 61 18 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11837 1048 24 61 18 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4075 1076 42 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 35 37 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 20 64 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 36 5 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 16 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 44 92 14 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4060 1067 55 92 0 0 0 0
OW 15 94 23 42 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 20 65 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 9 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 15 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 41 90 14 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8582 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8518 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 147 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 146 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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