Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118427 15881 664 1148 455 105 0 0
OW 209 1445 375 1141 758 84 0 0
VODI 0 204 135 781 996 209 7 0
ODI 0 36 38 267 872 493 18 0
CDI 0 0 13 147 459 1447 232 1
VCDI 0 0 0 63 453 4049 17054 18382
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114589 17623 720 1006 433 133 5 0
OW 111 1400 416 1232 901 154 19 0
VODI 33 293 220 1031 1119 553 46 0
ODI 0 73 55 284 741 528 69 0
CDI 0 4 32 194 588 1108 167 0
VCDI 0 0 6 163 644 4864 17237 18254
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109971 19125 1328 1744 388 99 0 0
OW 3 1529 448 1583 440 104 0 0
VODI 0 82 63 885 1230 201 10 0
ODI 0 4 22 159 1361 798 74 0
CDI 0 0 1 140 615 2499 457 18
VCDI 0 0 0 11 371 3745 16170 21370
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106780 17813 1040 2087 674 65 0 0
OW 51 1496 490 1960 1308 192 0 0
VODI 3 299 213 1280 1663 494 0 0
ODI 0 6 22 144 849 1132 24 0
CDI 0 1 6 92 531 1957 411 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 434 5013 18031 20458
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106768 18014 1107 2403 875 95 0 0
OW 65 1019 395 1568 1076 176 0 0
VODI 1 575 239 1338 1624 494 1 0
ODI 0 5 24 160 909 1171 30 0
CDI 0 2 4 93 503 1793 421 0
VCDI 0 0 2 30 472 5124 18014 20458

Date: 2023-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105633 17306 853 1256 590 126 0 0
OW 65 1459 459 1631 988 495 0 0
VODI 0 555 286 1425 1641 1333 4 0
ODI 0 17 45 477 881 1120 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 213 597 1590 147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 106 814 6357 19568 18982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105666 17564 942 1817 703 164 0 0
OW 32 1150 387 1106 897 498 0 0
VODI 0 596 254 1270 1361 1168 1 0
ODI 0 27 58 584 1165 1220 37 0
CDI 0 0 2 222 529 1561 155 0
VCDI 0 0 0 109 856 6410 19555 18982

Date: 2023-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106849 15568 697 1297 668 297 7 0
OW 113 941 279 1020 844 357 10 0
VODI 0 430 215 1175 1756 1306 23 0
ODI 0 170 85 532 1401 1144 30 0
CDI 0 42 22 233 995 1069 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 102 1041 8312 19546 18316
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106826 15522 715 1346 578 309 3 0
OW 136 1036 259 1111 865 342 11 0
VODI 0 405 230 1081 1929 1331 19 0
ODI 0 143 68 501 1557 1217 35 0
CDI 0 45 26 217 874 1269 140 0
VCDI 0 0 0 103 902 8017 19564 18316

Date: 2023-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106925 14079 786 1300 650 244 0 0
OW 55 809 262 743 845 405 0 0
VODI 0 191 165 948 1408 1420 113 0
ODI 0 19 32 378 1550 2258 74 0
CDI 0 1 4 240 775 2061 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 82 723 8720 18900 19734
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106845 13817 794 1222 535 234 18 0
OW 125 1050 277 864 944 607 99 0
VODI 10 207 128 876 1722 1697 88 0
ODI 0 25 44 375 1521 2535 174 0
CDI 0 0 6 266 561 2130 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 88 668 7905 18698 19734

Date: 2023-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available


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