Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-10-12

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-16

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 654 166 333 22 0 0 0
OW 0 58 51 213 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 32 215 160 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 106 527 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 94 331 1130 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 176 1460 11600 19347
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 497 79 178 77 14 0 0
OW 0 101 49 111 43 33 2 0
VODI 0 74 76 297 368 110 10 0
ODI 0 41 35 142 260 281 16 0
CDI 0 13 15 99 145 585 108 0
VCDI 0 0 17 147 380 1655 11497 19347

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 769 758 55 90 1 0 0 0
OW 0 36 7 57 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 56 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 33 73 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 124 957 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 769 671 41 101 2 0 0 0
OW 0 116 20 34 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 37 69 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 29 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 44 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 126 934 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1926 2616 138 266 90 15 0 0
OW 0 55 51 100 105 14 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 150 210 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 282 241 1 15
CDI 0 0 0 0 85 560 55 24
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 599 2111 225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1926 2448 118 286 285 44 0 0
OW 0 113 32 53 108 80 1 0
VODI 0 98 33 75 46 112 22 0
ODI 0 13 11 77 50 104 27 0
CDI 0 0 1 32 171 177 68 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 117 941 2049 262

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2515 1944 107 107 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 17 106 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 59 98 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 127 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 405 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2515 1962 115 194 75 0 0 0
OW 0 2 9 71 116 38 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 80 277 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 137 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 45 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 208 3986 203 144 0 0 0 0
OW 2 368 192 334 7 0 0 0
VODI 1 3 14 414 129 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 543 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 333 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 115 131 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 208 3827 264 356 14 0 0 0
OW 3 493 126 363 143 9 0 0
VODI 0 37 19 188 495 165 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 88 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 60 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 218 131 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1820 125 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 243 85 192 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 4 96 115 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 169 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 286 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 513 1471 6
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1707 170 151 32 8 0 0
OW 0 279 38 152 76 32 0 0
VODI 0 75 4 45 133 48 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 4 66 117 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 170 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 488 1451 6

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3378 1923 77 62 0 0 0 0
OW 50 134 15 132 2 0 0 0
VODI 2 0 1 131 118 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 212 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 38 52 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3412 1794 32 24 0 0 0 0
OW 18 257 35 109 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 26 170 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 146 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 87 50 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 3 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10190 1125 8 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10190 1079 8 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6454 2518 81 113 137 25 0 0
OW 0 39 34 39 35 63 0 0
VODI 0 3 21 79 8 44 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 31 52 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 129 63 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 94 1119 358 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6454 2398 49 96 147 131 8 0
OW 0 86 23 10 9 28 12 0
VODI 0 61 39 48 16 21 18 0
ODI 0 15 17 57 11 10 13 0
CDI 0 0 8 74 41 16 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 210 1160 363 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11984 927 38 35 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11984 927 38 35 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4722 736 36 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 13 29 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 27 8 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 12 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 38 4 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 48 3 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4722 696 17 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 16 20 0 7 0 0
VODI 0 8 10 30 0 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 20 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 24 26 1 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 64 51 2 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8587 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8587 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20209 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20209 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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