Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12644 5555 120 93 0 0 0 0
OW 0 545 304 499 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 59 1477 307 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 387 4667 608 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1538 3234 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12752 5201 100 56 0 0 0 0
OW 0 770 275 430 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 118 1398 238 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 501 3306 990 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1447 4148 267 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12861 5514 234 135 0 0 0 0
OW 0 195 207 470 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 34 1219 210 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 167 2740 453 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1215 6143 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 102 25 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12355 5792 189 174 21 0 0 0
OW 0 336 214 392 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 64 852 418 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 205 2216 574 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 890 6185 1039 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 54 19 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12355 5688 203 199 29 0 0 0
OW 0 425 178 385 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 86 831 387 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 208 2243 747 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 897 5993 1044 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 73 14 0

Date: 2023-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12849 4912 92 167 27 0 0 0
OW 0 678 203 289 179 116 9 0
VODI 0 70 114 579 297 161 112 0
ODI 0 0 8 312 1627 349 216 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 487 4648 2765 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 193 618 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12849 4882 116 147 33 0 0 0
OW 0 689 152 295 151 83 3 0
VODI 0 89 142 579 301 164 89 0
ODI 0 0 7 325 1588 579 240 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 544 4457 2983 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 184 405 0

Date: 2023-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12661 5827 188 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 194 202 398 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 17 752 349 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 1892 173 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 292 2861 269 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 551 4665 630
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12661 5071 82 131 11 0 0 0
OW 0 710 136 308 135 48 0 0
VODI 0 232 171 543 339 284 7 0
ODI 0 9 18 290 1485 269 125 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 584 2866 4096 203
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 130 706 427

Date: 2023-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12843 5247 99 67 0 0 0 0
OW 0 731 197 328 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 131 762 320 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 172 1641 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 821 1793 278 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 1535 4793 203
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12843 5043 89 132 33 0 0 0
OW 0 711 147 335 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 240 171 576 571 45 0 0
ODI 0 20 20 267 1289 383 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 802 2665 2761 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 296 2307 203

Date: 2023-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12634 4715 78 118 24 0 0 0
OW 0 930 149 293 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 122 665 390 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 144 1110 479 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 431 2013 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 696 4901 1828
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12589 4736 123 189 147 5 0 0
OW 45 801 124 427 185 43 0 0
VODI 0 183 88 443 563 281 0 0
ODI 0 30 19 165 764 876 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 396 1947 2693 284
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 72 2251 1544


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