Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22916 7312 208 158 79 0 0 0
OW 0 179 160 356 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 54 697 293 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 351 1386 719 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 916 2262 1258 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 2395 3855 16
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22821 7318 243 191 2 0 0 0
OW 0 253 153 427 13 6 0 0
VODI 0 53 56 755 214 43 0 0
ODI 0 2 23 451 1109 619 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 232 771 2882 546 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 1019 5379 201
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24048 6363 328 222 7 0 0 0
OW 0 137 176 411 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 14 1030 153 6 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 172 1641 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 654 3337 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 14 1447 5404 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23859 6266 289 307 12 0 0 0
OW 0 187 199 443 108 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 20 719 354 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 154 1340 215 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 650 3112 717 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 16 944 5860 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23859 6203 344 404 27 0 0 0
OW 0 249 146 420 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 18 685 337 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 1244 249 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 751 3138 785 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 16 876 5797 0

Date: 2023-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23894 5767 236 181 2 0 0 0
OW 0 380 206 583 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 33 627 420 53 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 267 1009 303 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 571 3064 864 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 41 1415 5762 7
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23894 5686 329 428 22 0 0 0
OW 0 424 111 464 114 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 35 548 405 67 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 214 967 331 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 575 3113 974 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 51 1324 5652 7

Date: 2023-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21015 7734 452 564 10 0 0 0
OW 0 45 80 466 112 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 5 529 494 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 1043 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 203 2675 222 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 2 1454 8338 223
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21015 7296 354 533 64 9 0 0
OW 0 476 166 672 518 40 0 0
VODI 0 14 17 296 498 215 21 0
ODI 0 1 0 83 423 573 100 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 340 2020 1513 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 21 1409 6926 223

Date: 2023-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21641 7153 359 486 45 0 0 0
OW 0 83 112 582 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 440 565 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 700 264 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 138 1090 942 64
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 421 7886 2780
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21641 6598 247 327 42 0 0 0
OW 0 635 218 808 300 29 0 0
VODI 0 6 10 321 601 198 23 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 359 402 177 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 189 837 1066 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 326 7571 2841

Date: 2023-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22885 5905 274 410 62 4 0 0
OW 0 270 160 513 86 9 0 0
VODI 0 4 25 480 529 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 663 239 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 264 946 489 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 277 4620 6597
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22853 5382 219 321 63 1 0 0
OW 32 756 188 614 293 24 0 0
VODI 0 41 48 391 494 268 12 0
ODI 0 0 4 144 248 418 149 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 432 315 876 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 74 480 4078 6624


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