Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130674 16831 615 708 111 0 0 0
OW 0 786 549 1089 165 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 125 2557 800 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 909 7292 1438 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 2934 8130 1258 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 5207 4576 16
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129723 17402 607 674 23 0 0 0
OW 0 1065 491 1148 90 6 0 0
VODI 0 83 183 2499 670 43 0 0
ODI 0 2 23 1082 5217 2025 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 277 2459 9319 1084 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 3612 6919 201
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131765 15947 842 699 63 0 0 0
OW 0 382 441 1062 73 1 0 0
VODI 0 8 65 2560 521 11 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 449 5028 585 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 2181 12514 773 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 14 3157 7900 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130767 16201 754 891 81 0 0 0
OW 0 563 478 1052 235 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 102 1856 953 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 484 4071 846 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1949 11593 2209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 16 3108 8709 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130767 16050 847 1059 108 0 0 0
OW 0 697 366 1013 227 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 119 1772 950 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 436 3933 1057 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 2071 11423 2288 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 16 3060 8633 0

Date: 2023-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130896 15083 602 783 100 0 0 0
OW 0 1094 453 1106 344 116 9 0
VODI 0 95 169 1414 936 216 112 0
ODI 0 3 8 671 3121 730 235 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1439 9114 3996 9
VCDI 0 0 0 14 41 2817 11230 50
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130896 14977 731 1072 140 0 0 0
OW 0 1144 289 960 339 83 3 0
VODI 0 151 205 1296 986 233 89 0
ODI 0 3 7 634 2952 994 260 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 1513 8864 4339 8
VCDI 0 0 0 15 51 2819 10891 51

Date: 2023-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127307 18214 965 1126 112 0 0 0
OW 0 266 335 1044 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 26 1569 1024 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 3459 335 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 670 6385 594 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 3 2565 18895 1779
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127307 16993 769 1180 228 10 0 0
OW 0 1226 326 1181 749 92 0 0
VODI 0 260 209 1010 1085 515 28 0
ODI 0 10 22 452 2231 924 226 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1160 5750 6474 203
VCDI 0 0 0 10 21 2016 12761 1576

Date: 2023-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127885 17157 758 1029 126 0 0 0
OW 0 835 360 1104 142 5 0 0
VODI 0 39 138 1447 1069 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 259 2707 360 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1190 3434 1308 64
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 2408 17145 6015
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127885 16362 633 940 194 4 0 0
OW 0 1396 403 1330 488 33 0 0
VODI 0 253 198 1125 1355 264 26 0
ODI 0 20 22 410 1919 833 188 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1267 4120 4207 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 975 14045 6076

Date: 2023-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129394 14704 658 1076 190 4 0 0
OW 0 1216 327 1016 239 12 0 0
VODI 0 111 157 1279 1175 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 263 1996 859 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 836 3334 656 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 1356 12244 13734
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129317 14192 621 1038 331 7 0 0
OW 77 1580 351 1215 576 69 0 0
VODI 0 229 149 963 1297 567 12 0
ODI 0 30 26 378 1191 1441 195 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 996 2631 3741 284
VCDI 0 0 0 1 98 934 8958 13477


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