Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129274 17488 624 398 4 0 0 0
OW 0 680 576 1118 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 114 3170 565 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 1605 6782 1327 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 163 3741 11001 707 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 46 6171 1418 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129702 16752 617 544 2 0 0 0
OW 3 1038 555 1018 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 137 216 2805 730 3 0 0
ODI 0 13 35 1375 6987 690 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 265 5022 7949 207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 61 7691 2580 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129915 17669 841 926 19 0 0 0
OW 0 328 416 1259 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 59 3131 810 19 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 540 9379 952 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1541 11312 883 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 16 4703 2213 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131614 15811 636 857 159 0 0 0
OW 0 693 491 1101 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 149 2714 746 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 894 7859 1364 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 2684 8244 1539 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 5430 3705 8
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131614 16092 754 1006 222 0 0 0
OW 0 428 376 1024 176 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 148 2635 836 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 898 8212 1471 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 2207 8628 1678 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 4950 3564 8

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132340 15162 499 617 99 0 0 0
OW 0 1001 566 1024 121 2 0 0
VODI 0 85 189 2512 702 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 1056 6241 1807 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 149 2633 8825 1057 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 4113 6060 15
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132340 15571 672 757 153 0 0 0
OW 0 601 362 991 118 1 0 0
VODI 0 76 236 2397 760 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 1064 6518 1850 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 149 2256 9081 1315 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 3823 5810 15

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129604 18070 801 738 73 0 0 0
OW 0 314 501 1116 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 35 2821 508 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 306 6022 198 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1428 13442 498 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 13 2240 8141 91
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129604 17337 717 883 212 0 0 0
OW 0 893 368 822 120 2 0 0
VODI 0 158 233 2293 812 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 813 4639 2312 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 170 2294 10414 1388 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 38 3120 7171 91

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130025 17387 874 710 61 0 0 0
OW 0 464 439 1130 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 82 2317 633 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 468 4745 518 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 2471 11845 1388 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 11 3921 7442 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130025 16362 680 736 148 0 0 0
OW 0 1138 395 730 130 0 0 0
VODI 0 369 296 2147 697 31 0 0
ODI 0 8 25 866 4109 1253 26 0
CDI 0 0 1 147 2899 10722 2138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 15 4286 6666 0

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131215 15298 602 813 126 0 0 0
OW 0 885 466 1060 325 42 0 0
VODI 0 52 152 1612 898 243 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 659 3455 890 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 1609 10505 3060 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 40 2309 10282 330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131215 14573 533 868 194 0 0 0
OW 0 1058 260 750 257 2 0 0
VODI 0 544 347 1352 1071 221 0 0
ODI 0 60 81 895 2609 1434 113 0
CDI 0 0 0 313 2282 10226 3607 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 40 2106 9703 330


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