Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-09-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19782 8368 229 160 1 0 0 0
OW 0 739 394 434 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 68 1617 262 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 513 2610 254 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 7 1097 3958 297 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 1204 3794 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17922 9942 256 203 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1068 366 407 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 125 1608 169 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 485 2461 319 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 10 1069 3883 427 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 1933 3105 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20858 8532 344 180 0 0 0 0
OW 0 107 250 468 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 11 921 231 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 236 2370 171 2 0
CDI 0 3 2 8 982 4923 495 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 2137 2585 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21061 8367 211 100 1 0 0 0
OW 0 379 229 374 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 46 909 193 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 515 1945 80 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 6 1656 4540 418 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 12 3396 1387 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21061 8168 216 140 1 0 0 0
OW 0 523 216 269 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 53 991 171 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 499 1862 66 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 4 1759 4225 379 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 12 3725 1426 0

Date: 2023-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22276 7189 175 70 0 0 0 0
OW 0 451 253 386 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 81 979 116 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 7 874 1245 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 161 1694 3396 217 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 16 4082 2140 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22276 6847 178 86 0 0 0 0
OW 0 742 218 309 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 110 1119 77 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 10 771 1207 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 185 1770 3321 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 17 4171 2139 0

Date: 2023-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22133 7714 366 245 0 0 0 0
OW 1 47 142 442 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 11 1108 181 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 2707 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 533 5865 165 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 13 1488 2499 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22134 6819 194 182 0 0 0 0
OW 0 807 168 375 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 138 139 753 383 56 0 0
ODI 0 5 18 362 940 346 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 218 2071 2665 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 4384 2465 0

Date: 2023-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23191 6671 343 442 24 0 0 0
OW 0 68 114 378 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 741 391 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 195 1732 743 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 799 2875 1751 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 15 2524 2690 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23191 5717 154 213 15 0 0 0
OW 0 851 176 273 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 176 133 838 323 65 0 0
ODI 0 1 7 393 967 235 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 1672 2309 1017 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 18 3584 3431 0

Date: 2023-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22916 7312 208 158 79 0 0 0
OW 0 179 160 356 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 54 697 293 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 351 1386 719 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 916 2262 1258 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 2395 3855 16
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22916 6165 102 92 51 0 0 0
OW 0 1008 90 157 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 369 211 704 198 26 0 0
ODI 0 1 37 516 769 257 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 174 1685 2335 743 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 2817 4389 16


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