Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-08-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15663 10445 581 451 0 0 0 0
OW 3 407 483 842 4 1 0 0
VODI 0 8 65 1979 190 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 490 2788 403 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1317 4351 770 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 1 1953 2598 39
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16995 9341 494 436 4 0 0 0
OW 0 561 571 677 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 71 1809 221 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 547 2575 350 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1780 3589 1044 32
VCDI 0 4 0 0 62 3004 1617 35
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18209 9415 426 212 4 0 0 0
OW 0 202 469 672 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 11 1963 176 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 219 3243 303 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 1 986 4365 408 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 30 1250 3280 6
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19701 8444 222 157 2 0 0 0
OW 0 590 430 436 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 36 1796 154 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 549 2720 169 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 8 1139 4055 327 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 1637 3241 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19701 8673 310 222 2 0 0 0
OW 0 349 309 429 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 69 1701 202 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 585 2960 212 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 9 847 4135 378 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 40 1514 3190 0

Date: 2023-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19321 8790 149 140 1 0 0 0
OW 0 790 471 431 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 70 1773 136 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 444 2647 241 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 7 1113 3878 405 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 64 1563 3413 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19321 9269 345 251 1 0 0 0
OW 0 299 273 546 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 72 1550 202 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 441 2776 349 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 7 919 3926 492 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 1406 3326 0

Date: 2023-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20338 8764 410 169 0 0 0 0
OW 0 72 257 604 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 1049 212 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 83 2796 121 1 0
CDI 0 4 0 8 555 5421 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 2012 2700 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20338 8171 287 325 10 0 0 0
OW 0 564 188 378 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 101 193 856 572 20 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 346 2084 814 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 8 726 4073 629 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 2649 2329 0

Date: 2023-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21039 8413 282 124 0 0 0 0
OW 0 156 273 442 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 22 926 197 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 395 2232 26 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 9 1292 3896 1208 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 2027 2846 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21039 7657 176 182 2 0 0 0
OW 0 688 177 289 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 233 220 959 278 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 5 454 2085 316 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 12 1336 3043 1074 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 2590 2980 0

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21417 8036 176 85 1 0 0 0
OW 0 399 273 374 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 36 1016 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 792 1465 140 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 102 1572 4101 496 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 31 3930 1285 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21410 7209 169 176 5 0 0 0
OW 7 855 105 202 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 388 209 1122 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 790 1530 212 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 1508 3137 439 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 4822 1342 0


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