Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-08-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12755 10243 736 674 21 0 0 0
OW 16 560 354 1140 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 197 107 2863 323 2 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 824 3226 86 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 2162 3799 246 15
VCDI 0 4 0 0 13 1407 2740 1290
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13344 10060 601 611 3 0 0 0
OW 44 876 387 923 32 1 0 0
VODI 29 167 174 2416 629 24 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 796 2926 256 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 1509 3540 1150 7
VCDI 0 4 0 3 10 382 3342 1566
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14324 10798 819 667 1 0 0 0
OW 5 171 245 899 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 49 2645 320 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 3491 325 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 969 4053 1034 19
VCDI 0 3 1 0 3 515 2997 1341
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16539 9278 595 627 0 0 0 0
OW 5 363 372 883 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 52 2201 189 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 423 3057 268 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 1167 4386 957 0
VCDI 0 3 1 0 2 1367 3075 26
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16540 9347 600 666 3 0 0 0
OW 4 285 322 761 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 97 2190 210 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 517 2973 319 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 1230 4295 954 0
VCDI 0 3 1 0 2 1411 3078 26

Date: 2023-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15580 10561 530 515 1 0 0 0
OW 2 519 469 789 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 65 1904 186 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 468 2766 356 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 4 1549 4301 551 0
VCDI 0 2 0 0 18 3013 1676 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15580 10586 597 609 2 0 0 0
OW 2 457 294 581 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 173 1905 218 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 581 2705 415 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1575 4111 587 0
VCDI 0 3 1 0 21 3152 1640 0

Date: 2023-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17405 9820 525 210 5 0 0 0
OW 0 74 390 962 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 2136 185 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 139 3471 243 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 4 963 4663 146 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 28 1434 3032 23
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17403 9428 479 343 6 0 0 0
OW 2 421 296 589 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 141 1827 249 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 687 2433 471 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 1820 2926 1368 12
VCDI 0 3 1 0 143 2924 1810 11

Date: 2023-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18829 9189 276 117 2 0 0 0
OW 0 521 442 440 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 30 1894 110 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 438 3041 157 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 2 1207 4317 218 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 15 1341 3269 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18827 8613 230 136 3 0 0 0
OW 2 722 217 291 4 1 0 0
VODI 0 375 296 1471 198 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 978 2043 317 2 0
CDI 0 4 0 15 2003 2913 869 0
VCDI 0 2 1 0 126 2540 2616 0

Date: 2023-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19782 8368 229 160 1 0 0 0
OW 0 739 394 434 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 68 1617 262 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 513 2610 254 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 7 1097 3958 297 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 1204 3794 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19781 7631 235 198 2 0 0 0
OW 1 854 123 272 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 626 331 1123 286 71 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 1097 1528 410 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 41 2009 2610 876 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 194 2325 3215 0


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