Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-08-17

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-21

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 265 2633 234 112 0 0 0 0
OW 0 93 250 509 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 2558 364 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 199 5529 208 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1267 11240 597 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 987 7274 2564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 265 2349 143 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 255 171 489 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 170 1814 688 7 0 0
ODI 0 1 10 968 4120 1838 199 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 2346 9376 3067 52
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1214 4605 2512

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1199 616 34 54 1 0 0 0
OW 17 42 8 27 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 1 68 60 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 7 223 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 138 557 0 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 9 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1061 444 33 54 2 0 0 0
OW 108 176 1 26 14 0 0 0
VODI 47 48 9 57 78 12 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 14 183 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 155 527 0 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 11 0 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1650 3515 284 151 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 131 488 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 1482 145 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 1791 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 146 75 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1650 3276 207 206 0 0 0 0
OW 0 229 141 402 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 68 1262 352 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 316 1337 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 390 83 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1769 3534 143 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 18 57 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1769 3456 123 103 0 0 0 0
OW 0 68 33 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 5 32 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2294 3207 297 145 0 0 0 0
OW 0 34 222 508 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 539 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2294 2774 185 226 0 0 0 0
OW 0 369 184 390 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 150 565 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1229 1507 41 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 75 96 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 364 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 467 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 127 826 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 395 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1229 1482 44 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 41 53 89 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 21 292 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 97 498 306 140 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 97 543 348 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3279 2354 97 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 51 121 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 183 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 153 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3279 2313 88 42 1 0 0 0
OW 0 44 57 144 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 162 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 129 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10456 875 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10456 875 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7980 2195 212 172 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 48 239 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 251 132 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 272 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 60 66 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7980 2096 157 260 0 0 0 0
OW 0 103 81 200 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 21 148 153 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 71 96 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 167 59 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 746 4534 325 114 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 32 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 12 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 746 4534 325 130 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 24 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7871 676 20 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7871 663 17 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 4 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18487 1683 34 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18487 1683 34 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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