Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-08-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12077 8577 536 691 52 0 0 0
OW 0 253 421 1417 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 52 2986 637 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 555 3778 142 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1593 5439 737 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 28 594 3974 1146
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13063 7897 484 658 49 0 0 0
OW 0 651 461 1372 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 106 161 2614 576 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 904 3183 315 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 54 1330 5165 795 16
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 249 3341 2316
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13061 9193 844 603 28 0 0 0
OW 0 203 287 1315 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 65 2948 555 11 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 375 4009 168 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1358 4424 284 51
VCDI 0 0 0 4 14 375 4058 1460
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13991 8991 705 582 6 0 0 0
OW 24 425 368 1187 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 218 93 2890 316 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 4 777 3353 127 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 3 1852 4182 72 9
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 849 4152 638
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14015 8918 685 653 7 0 0 0
OW 0 550 338 959 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 144 2849 312 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 973 3305 122 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 5 1898 4098 94 5
VCDI 0 0 0 4 21 938 4130 642

Date: 2023-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12773 10569 618 562 4 0 0 0
OW 41 747 329 1062 32 0 0 0
VODI 4 186 148 2694 394 7 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 817 3135 115 28 3
CDI 0 0 0 1 2115 3465 616 71
VCDI 0 4 0 0 13 457 2739 2110
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12793 10562 641 705 16 0 0 0
OW 22 741 283 816 23 0 0 0
VODI 3 199 171 2605 384 6 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 1009 3096 132 26 3
CDI 0 0 0 1 2159 3432 659 63
VCDI 0 4 0 0 15 474 2698 2118

Date: 2023-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13504 11450 688 492 1 0 0 0
OW 17 120 331 938 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 6 3040 275 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 106 3785 187 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 763 4580 265 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 9 824 3276 1160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13366 10745 518 538 9 0 0 0
OW 108 653 290 700 18 0 0 0
VODI 47 182 213 2399 454 14 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 931 2718 299 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 1643 4123 760 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 11 1159 2754 1160

Date: 2023-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15126 10331 755 651 0 0 0 0
OW 3 267 315 887 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 57 2454 187 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 314 3252 247 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1030 4195 1195 0
VCDI 0 3 1 0 12 939 3311 301
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14997 9423 549 517 3 0 0 0
OW 97 763 264 650 3 0 0 0
VODI 35 417 293 2209 286 13 0 0
ODI 0 10 22 925 2317 354 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1876 3758 1728 29
VCDI 0 3 1 0 4 1262 2770 272

Date: 2023-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15663 10445 581 451 0 0 0 0
OW 3 407 483 842 4 1 0 0
VODI 0 8 65 1979 190 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 490 2788 403 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1317 4351 770 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 1 1953 2598 39
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15548 9357 422 484 3 0 0 0
OW 91 1058 320 538 4 0 0 0
VODI 27 426 359 1918 317 16 0 0
ODI 0 19 29 802 2023 453 14 0
CDI 0 4 0 23 1953 4764 1286 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1501 2068 39


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