Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-08-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10316 8140 575 908 59 0 0 0
OW 0 115 214 1688 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 3387 1653 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 81 4691 569 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 1137 3591 2066 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 26 661 4380 1403
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10738 8297 678 985 66 0 0 0
OW 0 401 242 1581 212 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 29 3010 1768 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 3690 1016 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 759 4495 1927 96
VCDI 0 0 0 3 23 2320 3287 76
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10552 9247 643 915 73 0 0 0
OW 0 115 169 1227 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 17 3177 855 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 102 4404 363 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 1010 5402 1141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 21 987 2784 2518
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11566 8925 516 716 47 0 0 0
OW 0 232 371 1317 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 31 3120 718 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 217 3979 322 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 1393 5543 808 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 28 602 3938 1330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11566 8939 570 817 43 0 0 0
OW 0 216 296 1189 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 52 3054 622 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 310 4032 325 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 1434 5528 811 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 28 612 3929 1330

Date: 2023-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12737 7941 485 845 44 0 0 0
OW 0 350 436 1460 98 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 62 2829 646 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 650 3433 389 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 1077 5372 1047 15
VCDI 0 0 0 5 19 583 4091 1152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12736 8032 559 953 55 0 0 0
OW 1 231 333 1419 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 91 2682 716 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 730 3359 367 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 1085 5405 1088 12
VCDI 0 0 0 5 19 572 4050 1155

Date: 2023-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12806 8976 721 541 19 0 0 0
OW 0 188 565 1064 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 3511 403 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 242 4432 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 826 5124 154 4
VCDI 0 0 0 4 15 344 4217 1458
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12806 8357 623 869 49 0 0 0
OW 0 622 426 1211 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 186 241 2222 680 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 1008 3088 219 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 1850 5048 435 9
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 395 3936 1453

Date: 2023-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13724 9011 738 579 24 0 0 0
OW 23 301 319 1246 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 195 90 2937 361 10 0 0
ODI 0 11 6 581 3576 249 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1626 4217 164 22
VCDI 0 0 0 4 22 468 4224 1097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13747 8254 450 721 37 0 0 0
OW 0 857 439 990 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 360 239 2215 449 0 0 0
ODI 0 26 21 1392 2576 69 3 0
CDI 0 21 4 32 2511 4391 434 68
VCDI 0 0 0 4 33 484 3951 1051

Date: 2023-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12755 10243 736 674 21 0 0 0
OW 16 560 354 1140 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 197 107 2863 323 2 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 824 3226 86 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 2162 3799 246 15
VCDI 0 4 0 0 13 1407 2740 1290
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12771 9620 546 764 38 0 0 0
OW 0 846 422 926 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 485 182 2138 391 0 0 0
ODI 0 41 38 1643 2147 33 16 0
CDI 0 16 10 33 3159 4037 516 71
VCDI 0 4 0 2 17 1224 2470 1234


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