Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-07-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95132 18561 1228 1794 308 5 0 0
OW 0 359 391 2443 480 25 0 0
VODI 0 54 82 3186 3165 135 0 0
ODI 0 4 18 693 11386 1956 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 159 9248 21013 709 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 279 12157 2064 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94674 19827 1280 1860 237 7 0 0
OW 0 457 441 2906 560 14 0 0
VODI 0 104 116 3138 3657 81 0 0
ODI 0 5 21 850 11949 1796 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 159 8925 19245 1075 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 11799 1792 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93957 22112 1609 1797 254 21 0 0
OW 0 181 393 2476 239 2 0 0
VODI 0 10 22 4265 2748 50 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 489 16778 1704 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 56 4376 23863 752 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 16 6583 2289 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95586 21709 1462 2118 178 20 0 0
OW 0 299 502 3053 251 4 0 0
VODI 0 40 32 3863 3717 40 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 789 15597 1346 14 0
CDI 0 2 0 83 4659 23259 547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 5828 2030 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95586 21751 1467 2567 207 20 0 0
OW 0 253 492 2615 336 3 0 0
VODI 0 45 37 3776 3642 38 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 846 15519 1420 11 0
CDI 0 2 0 102 4695 23323 547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 5693 2033 0

Date: 2023-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95939 22821 1444 2031 128 21 0 0
OW 0 377 429 3445 447 12 0 0
VODI 0 47 33 3510 5085 61 1 0
ODI 0 3 6 753 13798 1567 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 102 5009 22621 565 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 102 4865 1817 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95939 22893 1498 2504 224 20 0 0
OW 0 300 366 2959 500 8 0 0
VODI 0 51 43 3432 4984 67 1 0
ODI 0 3 5 819 13824 1794 9 0
CDI 0 1 1 127 4931 22566 546 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 4692 1835 0

Date: 2023-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98395 21488 1683 1832 104 14 0 0
OW 3 121 380 2403 179 1 0 0
VODI 0 19 8 5854 2114 16 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 507 17736 744 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 1899 28429 886 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1251 921 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98395 21273 1633 2925 315 14 0 0
OW 3 270 331 2963 807 12 0 0
VODI 0 85 103 3500 5598 186 2 0
ODI 0 3 4 1071 11486 2714 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 172 3748 24010 1191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 96 3519 564 0

Date: 2023-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98501 22663 1641 1996 153 4 0 0
OW 2 140 347 2884 296 3 0 0
VODI 0 24 7 5389 3818 31 1 0
ODI 0 2 0 303 14591 2438 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 2524 22244 4074 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 2499 384 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98500 22282 1607 3244 449 5 0 0
OW 3 376 290 2845 1141 26 0 0
VODI 0 167 90 3578 6231 228 24 0
ODI 0 4 8 794 9926 3362 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 153 3533 21146 3955 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 2452 419 0

Date: 2023-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97314 24586 1610 2039 157 6 0 0
OW 1 238 450 3467 335 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 25 5362 4882 25 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 272 12904 3166 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 2378 17703 5861 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 2074 1963 91
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97312 24211 1758 3586 515 8 0 0
OW 3 434 214 3285 1402 26 0 0
VODI 0 214 103 3478 6384 484 10 0
ODI 0 12 11 706 8745 3649 157 0
CDI 0 0 0 113 3550 17335 5585 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 111 1472 2082 93


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