Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-07-13

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-17

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 86 20 6 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1 22 53 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 141 83 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 4363 343 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1555 20134 799 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 7118 1989 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 41 2 1 9 0 0 0
OW 0 35 20 5 5 4 0 0
VODI 0 10 18 119 283 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 128 2689 891 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 127 2951 15490 882 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 11199 1885 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 288 108 5 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 10 65 3 2 0 0
VODI 0 4 1 78 118 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 807 72 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 312 1172 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 41 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 288 110 12 55 8 1 0 0
OW 0 7 3 70 83 3 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 33 127 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 361 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 586 1024 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 140 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 89 1421 79 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 30 199 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 455 257 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 4147 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2089 1024 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 89 1403 72 115 6 0 0 0
OW 0 25 37 278 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 303 959 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 1946 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3454 1046 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 249 1249 152 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 22 251 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 496 203 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 2869 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 249 1187 110 150 3 0 0 0
OW 0 46 44 279 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 20 353 674 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 1403 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1016 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 898 106 30 6 0 0 0
OW 0 68 119 416 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 1347 490 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 3608 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 22 34 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 758 59 36 61 0 0 0
OW 0 176 118 268 106 1 0 0
VODI 0 27 43 1177 642 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 8 335 2905 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 450 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1518 186 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 39 125 334 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 496 140 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 916 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 76 1214 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 65 63 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1357 140 107 2 0 0 0
OW 0 181 142 314 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 29 413 353 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 681 544 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 71 683 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 135 64 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1357 2396 210 193 23 0 0 0
OW 0 10 30 221 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 255 177 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 817 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 114 346 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1357 2330 200 288 90 0 0 0
OW 0 34 19 145 102 2 0 0
VODI 0 23 9 141 272 14 0 0
ODI 0 20 13 83 472 103 0 0
CDI 0 1 4 51 228 324 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9300 1779 67 61 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 29 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 31 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9300 1762 61 68 4 0 0 0
OW 0 11 4 27 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 22 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 13 25 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6703 2601 106 59 1 0 0 0
OW 0 3 50 156 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 533 205 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 65 635 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 97 437 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6703 2578 115 132 1 0 0 0
OW 0 26 38 290 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 342 415 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 316 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 148 400 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10448 2242 109 148 41 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10448 2242 109 148 41 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18 2957 320 714 98 16 0 0
OW 0 7 41 447 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 782 175 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 159 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18 2942 326 1175 120 16 0 0
OW 0 22 34 594 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 180 179 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 34 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7330 644 1 11 32 3 0 0
OW 0 5 28 26 5 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 99 40 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 145 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 81 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7330 618 3 11 35 4 0 0
OW 0 23 5 5 20 28 0 0
VODI 0 8 21 59 74 78 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 105 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18058 1959 84 56 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 1 32 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18058 1957 83 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 2 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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