Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-07-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5086 7348 364 506 121 19 0 0
OW 0 79 97 384 68 19 0 0
VODI 0 8 14 444 485 62 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 161 2248 490 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 2302 9452 535 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 471 11127 3899 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6329 6380 342 506 123 14 0 0
OW 3 79 113 366 116 22 0 0
VODI 0 10 25 510 774 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 219 2528 438 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 101 4823 7331 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 266 11891 2319 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4336 8292 748 543 134 2 0 0
OW 2 12 47 438 59 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 708 741 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 201 4474 629 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 3890 12139 280 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 213 6099 1810 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6290 7009 375 457 136 3 0 0
OW 1 23 61 536 62 18 0 0
VODI 0 4 18 823 1149 89 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 225 4776 588 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 4220 11716 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 111 5966 870 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6290 7004 369 489 141 1 0 0
OW 1 28 69 478 97 19 0 0
VODI 0 4 16 798 1066 97 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 282 4448 551 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 4585 11688 332 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 117 6024 838 0

Date: 2023-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8158 5421 369 436 116 8 0 0
OW 0 69 83 687 148 15 0 0
VODI 0 13 36 846 1606 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 262 5104 307 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 7192 8167 228 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 472 5323 690 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8158 5405 350 486 125 8 0 0
OW 0 92 102 591 176 19 0 0
VODI 0 6 33 832 1513 98 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 326 4634 312 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 7723 8132 283 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 467 5335 634 0

Date: 2023-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7966 5788 457 413 92 19 0 0
OW 0 26 95 631 52 6 0 0
VODI 0 4 1 1243 709 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 9991 394 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 2966 10029 277 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 3684 871 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7966 5665 412 596 122 21 0 0
OW 0 123 96 727 306 31 0 0
VODI 0 30 45 826 1985 92 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 252 4848 594 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 6474 8091 354 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 5334 794 0

Date: 2023-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7961 6216 446 490 94 17 0 0
OW 0 65 131 736 98 1 0 0
VODI 0 27 3 1351 1233 36 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 349 9035 647 7 0
CDI 0 2 0 22 2504 9557 685 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 3260 882 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7961 6042 400 746 151 17 0 0
OW 0 196 118 866 392 11 0 0
VODI 0 69 52 930 2033 97 0 0
ODI 0 3 10 341 4673 706 34 0
CDI 0 2 0 65 5680 7995 584 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 4692 956 0

Date: 2023-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8047 6565 370 515 95 18 0 0
OW 0 107 129 973 160 9 0 0
VODI 0 12 5 1677 1613 31 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 561 8462 408 2 0
CDI 0 2 0 23 3283 8915 373 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 2921 505 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8047 6377 317 1077 182 20 0 0
OW 0 263 110 976 399 14 0 0
VODI 0 44 77 894 2030 126 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 610 5073 381 14 0
CDI 0 2 0 188 5789 7008 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 223 4753 622 0


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