Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-07-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1493 8838 542 1048 173 12 0 0
OW 0 169 117 672 119 22 0 0
VODI 0 13 29 462 307 39 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 133 1110 289 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 1322 5986 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 149 10225 8565 3821
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2113 8609 446 1106 148 6 0 0
OW 1 184 137 510 141 13 0 0
VODI 0 18 24 326 404 51 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 116 930 682 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 884 7909 346 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1018 13363 6028 335
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4256 7244 409 935 126 11 0 0
OW 90 24 72 381 94 11 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 441 298 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 1955 228 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1675 10880 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 121 12472 3730 1
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5077 6987 380 758 132 8 0 0
OW 11 56 78 383 81 9 0 0
VODI 0 8 19 429 400 50 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 170 2038 498 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 2604 9185 787 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2061 10098 3507 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5063 6999 383 824 146 10 0 0
OW 25 45 78 344 79 9 0 0
VODI 0 7 16 402 400 70 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 176 1914 455 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 2707 9001 834 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2070 10303 3459 0

Date: 2023-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6620 5995 393 422 105 20 0 0
OW 1 69 107 396 65 21 0 0
VODI 0 7 20 522 577 78 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 174 2279 594 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 3158 8794 287 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 11656 3290 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6620 5995 406 487 110 21 0 0
OW 1 66 92 340 72 24 0 0
VODI 0 10 22 517 576 79 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 172 2142 584 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 3284 8780 275 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 11675 3302 0

Date: 2023-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5471 7668 350 315 113 4 0 0
OW 2 18 80 389 38 6 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 697 563 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 187 4491 275 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 4687 11746 122 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 154 6071 2364 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5471 7539 295 387 131 12 0 0
OW 2 120 84 325 182 25 0 0
VODI 0 28 52 472 877 119 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 323 2339 585 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 5759 7031 113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 758 10354 2374 0

Date: 2023-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6029 6464 653 871 136 1 0 0
OW 2 8 44 483 57 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 780 971 63 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 184 4541 724 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 4114 11737 445 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 389 6040 1108 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6029 6273 557 884 175 6 0 0
OW 2 147 76 409 210 43 0 0
VODI 0 50 56 509 1121 121 0 0
ODI 0 2 10 431 2513 584 1 0
CDI 0 0 2 99 5556 7724 178 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 633 10090 1375 0

Date: 2023-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7328 6173 316 445 121 4 0 0
OW 0 55 72 597 89 23 0 0
VODI 0 16 12 914 1327 104 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 230 4975 437 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 5925 9710 297 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 78 5726 852 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7327 5905 229 486 187 43 0 0
OW 1 252 85 392 272 62 0 0
VODI 0 60 69 737 1236 81 0 0
ODI 0 24 20 525 2543 268 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 69 7589 5980 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 688 9570 906 0


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