Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-07-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82321 23063 1710 3391 311 12 0 0
OW 10 208 246 2162 660 53 0 0
VODI 0 13 38 1384 2808 449 10 0
ODI 0 5 0 352 4582 1433 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 161 3576 14191 1439 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 208 14105 21524 6610
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84000 22729 1540 3019 284 7 0 0
OW 8 272 297 2066 908 71 0 0
VODI 0 35 39 1216 3126 597 1 0
ODI 0 5 12 314 3894 1887 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 241 2961 18345 1750 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1156 20382 15330 537
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86859 21250 1641 2576 222 25 0 0
OW 96 60 241 1772 441 28 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 2085 1987 94 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 327 7178 921 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 141 3380 22629 1317 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 221 19228 12265 35
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88442 21221 1259 2223 274 30 0 0
OW 17 216 305 1750 571 24 0 0
VODI 0 24 91 2047 2799 126 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 426 6122 1268 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 218 4979 20765 1462 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2491 19249 8615 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88428 21213 1264 2360 314 37 0 0
OW 31 219 306 1558 588 30 1 0
VODI 0 29 85 2081 2641 134 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 457 5958 1179 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 208 5226 20619 1384 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2509 19463 8693 0

Date: 2023-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92116 18379 1312 1980 308 20 0 0
OW 5 284 358 2029 679 39 0 0
VODI 0 66 110 2130 3261 162 13 0
ODI 0 3 13 508 5920 1034 17 0
CDI 0 0 8 340 7591 18391 858 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 688 21190 7236 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92116 18330 1325 2126 368 21 0 0
OW 5 345 345 1820 683 56 0 0
VODI 0 55 115 2200 3187 148 9 0
ODI 0 2 9 503 5676 1009 20 0
CDI 0 0 7 338 7891 18396 804 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 642 21206 7291 0

Date: 2023-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91262 20606 1386 1757 273 4 0 0
OW 4 67 315 1708 242 8 0 0
VODI 0 10 8 3053 2082 63 0 0
ODI 0 1 7 490 11054 809 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 6829 26633 647 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 214 11214 6209 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91260 20080 1227 2174 436 13 0 0
OW 6 476 326 1926 904 77 0 0
VODI 0 113 146 2049 3471 235 3 0
ODI 0 12 5 586 5046 1471 11 0
CDI 0 3 12 359 9797 17291 855 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1040 19644 5994 0

Date: 2023-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92175 19558 1717 2448 302 1 0 0
OW 3 124 217 2044 401 3 0 0
VODI 0 15 22 3070 2896 81 0 0
ODI 0 6 11 510 10333 2347 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 6360 24507 1912 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 570 11798 3493 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92175 18998 1463 2820 567 7 0 0
OW 3 554 333 2083 1104 56 0 0
VODI 0 122 130 2141 3568 178 0 0
ODI 0 23 27 766 5420 1451 1 0
CDI 0 6 14 385 9215 17563 1419 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 988 19482 3986 0

Date: 2023-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95132 18561 1228 1794 308 5 0 0
OW 0 359 391 2443 480 25 0 0
VODI 0 54 82 3186 3165 135 0 0
ODI 0 4 18 693 11386 1956 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 159 9248 21013 709 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 279 12157 2064 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95130 17975 1057 2476 784 50 0 0
OW 2 786 386 2036 1012 64 0 0
VODI 0 157 208 2367 3265 126 0 0
ODI 0 54 55 1013 5834 1213 0 0
CDI 0 6 13 383 12765 14549 664 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1206 19289 2121 0


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