Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-06-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86 5831 675 2467 383 13 0 0
OW 2 110 74 1165 479 16 8 0
VODI 0 26 24 479 1172 46 28 0
ODI 0 13 12 94 549 146 66 1
CDI 0 2 3 72 1037 4150 1102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 672 6039 6198 12623
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 387 6625 640 2557 215 17 2 0
OW 1 156 74 1062 528 33 10 0
VODI 0 69 28 415 485 44 35 0
ODI 0 35 16 122 568 234 51 1
CDI 0 9 9 84 1311 4655 856 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 698 7341 7681 8812
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 866 7874 748 1661 224 15 0 0
OW 1 40 59 808 151 19 1 0
VODI 0 24 16 599 456 21 6 0
ODI 0 5 1 95 1014 192 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 1311 4956 410 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 288 6972 11027 5981
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1332 8626 538 1184 182 16 0 0
OW 0 79 118 725 135 21 0 0
VODI 0 12 12 479 397 22 5 0
ODI 0 5 1 103 911 383 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 871 5609 741 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 164 7737 9454 5987
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1332 8652 580 1279 195 17 0 0
OW 0 49 79 641 171 19 0 0
VODI 0 15 9 482 352 24 4 0
ODI 0 6 1 89 867 398 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 914 5579 885 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 161 7751 9311 5987

Date: 2023-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2510 8146 383 981 273 6 0 0
OW 1 183 117 634 110 16 0 0
VODI 0 13 21 407 345 42 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 125 1128 387 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1327 6751 194 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 213 13274 7614 653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2505 8254 406 1099 301 3 0 0
OW 6 73 99 547 105 16 0 0
VODI 0 11 16 391 315 41 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 113 1060 388 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1394 6810 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 221 13218 7619 653

Date: 2023-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1399 9082 786 1273 117 2 0 0
OW 0 20 67 535 74 7 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 473 286 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 1666 340 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 891 12054 143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 203 12007 4225 132
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1396 9007 757 1510 174 4 0 0
OW 3 67 69 407 127 15 0 0
VODI 0 28 27 282 413 55 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 119 1022 735 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 1241 8494 132 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 260 15133 4210 132

Date: 2023-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3435 8520 468 647 116 10 0 0
OW 0 126 82 379 61 9 0 0
VODI 0 3 10 437 345 26 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 112 2053 301 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 2553 9640 379 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 659 11391 4070 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3435 8440 433 689 164 16 0 0
OW 0 113 71 318 102 18 0 0
VODI 0 84 38 307 472 56 16 0
ODI 0 12 18 223 1416 672 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 2940 6948 184 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 693 13667 4227 0

Date: 2023-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5086 7348 364 506 121 19 0 0
OW 0 79 97 384 68 19 0 0
VODI 0 8 14 444 485 62 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 161 2248 490 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 2302 9452 535 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 471 11127 3899 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5086 7176 314 517 159 25 0 0
OW 0 143 91 273 107 26 1 0
VODI 0 85 50 337 596 88 32 0
ODI 0 31 20 301 1608 682 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 104 2753 7894 754 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 472 12454 3675 0


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