Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-06-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59 4035 586 1317 686 388 0 0
OW 0 97 51 543 608 241 0 0
VODI 0 36 19 259 1078 496 2 0
ODI 0 25 31 92 874 741 27 0
CDI 0 15 8 153 660 1571 784 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 964 3356 12592 13419
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65 4404 558 1669 969 0 0 0
OW 0 123 83 689 828 11 0 0
VODI 0 42 24 491 1288 55 8 0
ODI 0 35 29 128 1059 140 34 0
CDI 0 20 28 166 931 1897 516 0
VCDI 0 0 1 28 1380 3712 11486 12969
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58 5055 554 1896 852 0 0 0
OW 1 81 77 700 607 11 0 0
VODI 0 13 24 609 1355 20 5 0
ODI 0 10 8 129 1330 153 10 0
CDI 0 1 0 34 1192 4017 294 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1025 5737 7030 12978
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72 5608 568 2353 529 13 0 0
OW 2 90 62 1049 566 13 3 0
VODI 0 23 22 511 1269 33 24 0
ODI 0 22 8 112 685 191 37 0
CDI 0 4 3 52 1045 4699 582 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 677 6742 5224 12962
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72 5588 560 2430 614 15 0 0
OW 2 106 66 1007 513 15 1 0
VODI 0 27 24 463 1286 36 27 0
ODI 0 19 9 126 629 189 36 0
CDI 0 7 4 52 1063 4757 656 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 666 6679 5150 12962

Date: 2023-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 155 6222 658 2429 422 22 1 0
OW 1 128 71 999 590 19 15 0
VODI 0 47 33 378 948 40 39 0
ODI 0 22 21 113 558 161 57 1
CDI 0 1 4 71 1202 4590 545 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 791 6221 6236 12055
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 155 6191 637 2543 515 27 3 0
OW 1 161 91 895 547 18 14 0
VODI 0 46 35 383 898 33 40 0
ODI 0 16 19 101 556 170 67 1
CDI 0 6 5 68 1233 4690 614 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 762 6115 6155 12055

Date: 2023-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 605 7442 670 1855 231 4 0 0
OW 1 41 74 908 132 11 4 0
VODI 0 13 10 737 504 16 9 0
ODI 0 3 4 91 1259 107 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1734 4490 384 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1310 5342 8427 9426
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 605 7150 606 2466 378 23 6 0
OW 1 232 95 653 476 32 7 0
VODI 0 81 30 264 346 46 26 0
ODI 0 25 19 109 537 282 54 0
CDI 0 11 8 102 1612 3386 2180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1821 6201 6570 9426

Date: 2023-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1001 7841 819 1796 198 10 0 0
OW 1 58 65 788 154 22 1 0
VODI 0 18 13 486 464 24 4 0
ODI 0 5 1 110 823 398 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1308 5033 475 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 203 7486 10383 5864
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1002 7568 754 2392 426 59 7 0
OW 0 218 83 313 175 31 9 0
VODI 0 79 31 247 229 82 42 0
ODI 0 48 20 108 628 350 60 0
CDI 0 9 10 124 1318 4421 1726 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 374 8030 9029 5864

Date: 2023-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1493 8838 542 1048 173 12 0 0
OW 0 169 117 672 119 22 0 0
VODI 0 13 29 462 307 39 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 133 1110 289 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 1322 5986 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 149 10225 8565 3821
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1493 8594 535 1603 328 56 10 0
OW 0 271 76 169 92 29 9 0
VODI 0 95 37 299 275 95 39 0
ODI 0 56 27 151 778 433 49 0
CDI 0 9 13 102 1490 6135 190 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 217 9825 8465 3821


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