Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-05-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-04-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67390 16407 773 1400 404 123 10 0 OW 59 164 61 496 459 81 0 0 VODI 0 144 39 293 632 227 41 0 ODI 0 73 30 142 497 473 128 2 CDI 0 72 14 137 769 1561 843 23 VCDI 0 29 19 181 1493 7999 26012 57348	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68148 15903 736 1279 514 145 2 0 OW 116 196 64 451 404 133 4 0 VODI 26 104 60 291 496 296 64 0 ODI 10 55 23 128 402 500 138 0 CDI 8 61 5 114 748 1639 1017 22 VCDI 0 42 16 134 1292 7316 26210 57736	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68160 16109 790 1302 424 82 0 0 OW 100 56 60 513 325 48 0 0 VODI 3 40 12 331 638 121 3 0 ODI 0 16 12 134 846 311 32 0 CDI 0 1 9 102 1643 3405 604 10 VCDI 0 55 1 75 789 6951 26402 56533	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67918 16078 782 1595 433 69 0 0 OW 82 66 40 471 414 42 0 0 VODI 4 35 8 274 720 162 17 0 ODI 0 15 10 213 885 473 65 6 CDI 0 11 11 120 1417 3575 733 53 VCDI 0 0 0 128 1095 7635 30229 51164	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67919 16100 792 1657 444 71 0 0 OW 80 55 29 415 435 42 0 0 VODI 5 29 14 270 705 156 17 0 ODI 0 11 7 213 840 495 72 6 CDI 0 10 9 117 1421 3333 797 70 VCDI 0 0 0 129 1119 7859 30158 51147

Date: 2023-05-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68629 15503 821 1488 370 50 0 0 OW 77 49 54 553 408 38 0 0 VODI 0 28 10 312 829 180 17 0 ODI 0 14 3 161 873 563 81 0 CDI 0 9 7 120 1260 3572 1369 1 VCDI 0 0 4 149 848 7818 31153 49627	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68630 15508 835 1588 391 54 0 0 OW 76 43 41 462 405 40 0 0 VODI 0 32 10 302 790 174 18 0 ODI 0 13 3 174 875 576 99 0 CDI 0 7 8 105 1250 3545 1416 4 VCDI 0 0 2 152 877 7832 31087 49624

Date: 2023-05-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69369 15457 752 1103 146 18 0 0 OW 71 27 97 821 190 12 0 0 VODI 0 8 9 682 788 36 1 0 ODI 0 4 8 153 1632 232 12 0 CDI 0 0 1 248 1507 4627 424 17 VCDI 0 0 0 80 873 6023 33484 48136	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69369 15402 774 1384 265 27 0 0 OW 71 33 61 612 326 32 0 0 VODI 0 30 13 414 803 100 18 0 ODI 0 17 5 209 1004 414 125 0 CDI 0 14 9 191 1382 2769 1438 22 VCDI 0 0 5 277 1356 7606 32340 48131

Date: 2023-05-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70022 15298 768 1014 180 63 2 0 OW 69 60 96 744 206 19 1 0 VODI 0 15 11 586 783 57 4 0 ODI 0 3 8 248 1246 361 29 0 CDI 0 0 4 233 1765 3572 1020 106 VCDI 0 0 0 186 914 7305 31591 48459	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70022 15249 734 1077 295 85 3 0 OW 69 59 103 570 261 52 4 0 VODI 0 30 29 508 624 69 50 0 ODI 0 23 4 272 981 457 135 0 CDI 0 15 13 237 1597 2445 1803 62 VCDI 0 0 4 347 1336 8269 30652 48503

Date: 2023-05-12:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70812 14962 627 937 171 39 0 0 OW 64 130 144 675 239 23 1 0 VODI 0 61 60 625 710 85 0 0 ODI 0 21 19 277 1045 532 35 0 CDI 0 47 31 250 1979 2751 1197 21 VCDI 0 10 33 249 969 8107 32658 46452	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70812 14922 637 1021 292 59 1 0 OW 64 121 117 472 263 61 0 0 VODI 0 55 49 620 500 156 18 0 ODI 0 51 19 314 876 490 141 11 CDI 0 64 28 210 1894 2465 1944 45 VCDI 0 18 64 376 1288 8306 31787 46417

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