Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-04-27

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 9 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 429 4156 32093
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 23 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 14 22 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 43 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 50 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 423 4066 32093

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 64 582 2483
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 64 582 2483

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 181 2623 7100
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 189 2627 7100

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 27 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 273 2159 3087
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 15 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 286 2162 3087

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 1723 5505
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 1724 5502

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 145 1500 3681
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 145 1500 3679

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 4 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 22 11 6 8 20 1 0
CDI 0 0 6 46 118 274 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 918 4508 254
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 21 0 0 0 4 1 0
CDI 0 34 1 0 9 82 51 1
VCDI 0 43 20 52 136 1126 4475 253

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4459 3541 167 164 9 0 0 0
OW 20 77 55 132 29 0 0 0
VODI 13 12 17 153 87 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 48 183 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 230 211 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 1446 225 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4440 3442 167 176 22 0 0 0
OW 22 114 43 150 46 0 0 0
VODI 13 45 25 107 126 4 0 0
ODI 15 19 2 45 117 19 0 0
CDI 2 12 2 24 141 107 0 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 117 1536 225 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4643 2997 127 141 29 9 0 0
OW 0 3 27 120 22 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 92 77 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 119 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 277 948 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 621 1290 6
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4643 2941 115 126 32 20 0 0
OW 0 26 18 99 13 10 0 0
VODI 0 20 4 81 54 16 0 0
ODI 0 12 8 32 74 15 3 0
CDI 0 1 13 28 145 164 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 217 1380 1304 6

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7207 3602 181 298 127 66 0 0
OW 0 3 4 113 66 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 47 99 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 96 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 549 170 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 59 161 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7207 3605 178 369 186 79 0 0
OW 0 0 7 60 68 48 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 29 60 83 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 68 63 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 428 266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 77 10 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 227 20 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 13 37 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 7 47 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 49 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 119 230 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 168 746 3125 832
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 152 5 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 10 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 16 37 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 9 26 37 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 64 211 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 240 765 3134 832

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 40 18 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 110 35 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 502 663 61 2
VCDI 0 0 0 30 483 615 3836 2107
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 1 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 31 29 24 1
CDI 0 0 0 47 299 408 57 12
VCDI 0 0 0 49 782 874 3825 2096

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10329 5720 202 432 140 9 0 0
OW 0 0 12 167 153 22 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 229 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 286 110 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 63 800 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 152 1159 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10329 5720 208 576 336 56 0 0
OW 0 0 6 56 214 71 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 204 209 21 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 96 332 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 398 586 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 606 0


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