Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-03-09

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-03-13

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 69 4 29 3 0 0 0
OW 0 5 6 56 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 21 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 29 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 46 24 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 290 966 3568 31681
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 48 3 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 3 47 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 14 26 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 11 22 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 16 24 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 329 965 3568 31681

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 278 2854
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 278 2854

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 1132 8821
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 1132 8821

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 551 5099
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 551 5099

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 332 6914
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 332 6914

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 58 1735 3487
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 1755 3487

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 116 7 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 0 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 1 3 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 22 0 3 2 2 0 0
CDI 0 21 0 3 4 6 20 1
VCDI 0 91 9 59 92 247 3120 2412
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 102 7 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 0 3 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 22 1 3 2 3 0 0
CDI 0 24 0 4 4 5 18 4
VCDI 0 125 9 59 92 247 3122 2409

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3689 4227 41 148 27 0 0 0
OW 0 171 12 104 31 4 0 0
VODI 0 102 10 105 89 10 0 0
ODI 0 63 3 40 138 50 0 0
CDI 0 59 4 25 97 137 2 0
VCDI 0 105 17 139 425 1096 161 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3689 4146 39 138 26 2 0 0
OW 0 219 6 91 42 2 0 0
VODI 0 158 16 87 71 19 0 0
ODI 0 73 8 65 97 43 0 0
CDI 0 50 5 52 115 150 3 0
VCDI 0 81 13 128 456 1081 160 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4550 3194 22 91 22 0 0 0
OW 0 62 11 80 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 7 112 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 62 76 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 117 11 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 244 1511 1368 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4550 3135 21 97 37 0 0 0
OW 0 75 8 44 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 8 104 23 2 0 0
ODI 0 19 3 69 47 9 0 0
CDI 0 7 2 42 103 15 0 0
VCDI 0 1 1 41 293 1503 1369 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7365 3416 39 191 120 36 0 0
OW 0 74 24 60 25 17 0 0
VODI 0 21 13 112 65 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 100 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 205 228 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 665 124 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7365 3438 56 244 141 43 0 0
OW 0 48 11 74 52 12 0 0
VODI 0 24 6 62 103 16 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 25 112 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 106 231 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 623 114 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 14 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 24 20 19 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 379 2134 3140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 5 0 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 88 403 2152 3145

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 166 1622 6754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 168 1622 6740

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11002 4936 35 72 7 0 0 0
OW 0 278 30 147 19 3 0 0
VODI 0 205 14 219 113 9 0 0
ODI 0 98 3 31 189 29 0 0
CDI 0 12 3 19 195 329 111 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 452 1562 56
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11002 4728 28 78 11 0 0 0
OW 0 329 25 65 9 1 0 0
VODI 0 277 20 168 81 8 0 0
ODI 0 147 6 113 108 17 0 0
CDI 0 48 6 53 209 144 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 136 652 1619 56


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