Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-02-23

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-02-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 295 5 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 4 20 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 4 38 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 1 21 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 45 2 29 51 0 4 0
VCDI 0 156 18 275 586 1362 7835 25970
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 260 4 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 53 4 17 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 2 19 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 39 3 18 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 51 2 37 30 7 6 0
VCDI 0 177 19 286 612 1355 7833 25970

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 208 1409 1516
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 208 1409 1516

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 749 9226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 749 9226

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 526 5122
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 521 5122

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7244
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7216

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 51 1453 3822
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 51 1453 3822

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 235 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 87 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 0 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 58 1 8 23 1 0 0
CDI 0 86 1 7 18 88 9 0
VCDI 0 87 16 103 159 546 4208 518
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 128 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 1 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 41 1 2 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 53 1 8 22 55 11 3
VCDI 0 317 18 114 175 580 4206 515

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5598 3088 18 73 0 0 0 0
OW 1 362 10 42 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 245 16 93 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 62 17 196 137 17 3 0
CDI 0 4 1 64 238 127 27 0
VCDI 0 0 1 36 311 324 168 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5562 3114 18 80 1 0 0 0
OW 37 274 9 44 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 236 18 74 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 78 11 110 73 11 4 0
CDI 0 35 2 101 168 108 23 0
VCDI 0 24 5 95 439 349 171 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5248 2599 25 123 12 0 0 0
OW 0 34 12 112 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 6 116 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 111 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 193 132 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 217 1596 981 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5248 2535 19 83 13 0 0 0
OW 0 56 10 67 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 7 103 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 6 76 58 1 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 69 119 348 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 368 1387 943 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7957 3456 18 89 90 16 0 0
OW 0 76 24 65 16 9 0 0
VODI 0 17 12 71 73 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 21 125 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 133 382 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 203 94 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7957 3410 22 101 97 15 0 0
OW 0 77 16 59 30 16 0 0
VODI 0 50 10 46 85 15 0 0
ODI 0 12 8 30 86 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 10 130 309 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 240 69 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 661 3458 1606
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 658 3458 1606

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 247 2550 5790
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 247 2546 5790

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10332 3986 61 245 46 0 0 0
OW 0 76 24 190 119 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 142 239 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 258 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 302 88 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 467 2548 976 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10332 3942 46 226 106 0 0 0
OW 0 108 26 125 140 4 0 0
VODI 0 15 15 159 136 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 177 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 308 88 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 564 2523 976 0


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