Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-02-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71719 13716 129 495 166 4 0 0
OW 53 599 48 360 134 4 0 0
VODI 0 356 50 489 367 9 0 0
ODI 0 187 26 339 537 58 0 0
CDI 0 135 23 227 721 430 74 16
VCDI 0 539 59 743 2172 5718 18413 67933
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71205 13769 119 503 197 5 0 0
OW 73 575 53 384 170 11 0 0
VODI 0 361 49 531 385 24 0 0
ODI 0 196 30 328 579 59 0 0
CDI 0 119 21 229 858 464 79 12
VCDI 0 402 50 545 2248 7324 24187 60904
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70654 14347 154 472 111 23 0 0
OW 60 453 68 451 165 7 0 0
VODI 0 225 39 545 519 12 0 0
ODI 0 103 21 388 752 85 0 0
CDI 0 70 6 162 986 636 39 15
VCDI 0 52 9 236 1573 6516 23562 63532
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70636 14223 141 404 117 21 0 0
OW 52 524 68 425 117 9 0 0
VODI 0 283 48 560 300 47 32 0
ODI 0 147 25 338 583 61 17 0
CDI 0 98 19 206 907 595 146 7
VCDI 0 133 19 228 1666 6855 25720 61271
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70636 14224 145 460 123 21 0 0
OW 52 550 64 415 128 9 0 0
VODI 0 259 47 531 311 48 31 0
ODI 0 147 27 314 535 50 17 0
CDI 0 74 19 216 919 563 119 7
VCDI 0 154 18 225 1674 6897 25748 61271

Date: 2023-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70595 14078 135 487 208 10 0 0
OW 52 546 58 355 173 15 0 0
VODI 0 328 48 425 334 42 0 0
ODI 0 147 32 254 474 85 12 2
CDI 0 110 13 262 675 624 106 31
VCDI 0 282 22 304 2260 7854 28589 57021
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70595 14113 134 467 237 10 0 0
OW 52 521 61 377 149 24 0 0
VODI 0 327 47 420 295 54 0 0
ODI 0 135 33 279 461 78 14 2
CDI 0 107 11 228 728 590 114 37
VCDI 0 288 22 316 2254 7874 28579 57015

Date: 2023-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70893 13688 128 539 148 16 0 0
OW 53 685 76 435 180 9 0 0
VODI 0 381 40 465 447 19 0 0
ODI 0 158 22 338 696 69 3 0
CDI 0 135 4 126 959 820 60 2
VCDI 0 243 35 414 1784 7757 24407 60814
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70857 13419 109 505 217 15 0 0
OW 89 602 65 317 220 20 0 0
VODI 0 427 53 401 339 39 0 0
ODI 0 183 29 330 429 86 4 0
CDI 0 141 7 259 792 921 132 33
VCDI 0 518 42 505 2217 7609 24334 60783

Date: 2023-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70206 14028 140 634 204 26 6 0
OW 77 475 92 464 202 16 4 0
VODI 0 367 37 472 487 48 4 0
ODI 0 122 7 208 659 113 1 0
CDI 0 117 9 123 1389 683 72 32
VCDI 0 249 29 336 1606 6724 23850 62730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70154 13895 139 552 253 49 6 0
OW 106 427 76 430 232 26 6 0
VODI 23 261 40 448 437 95 3 0
ODI 0 148 11 262 550 156 43 0
CDI 0 135 8 144 1240 813 81 67
VCDI 0 492 40 401 1835 6471 23798 62695

Date: 2023-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70275 14135 110 484 116 18 5 0
OW 86 460 86 432 176 4 2 0
VODI 0 274 38 502 404 31 1 0
ODI 0 221 22 354 544 108 1 0
CDI 0 120 8 246 897 1038 95 15
VCDI 0 168 29 300 1828 6648 23099 63668
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70232 13775 107 498 166 22 5 0
OW 91 590 64 312 230 9 3 0
VODI 38 360 45 440 355 70 0 0
ODI 0 180 27 325 430 166 2 18
CDI 0 122 14 371 806 988 73 62
VCDI 0 351 36 372 1978 6592 23120 63603


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