Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-02-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74442 12652 121 469 134 3 0 0
OW 74 411 53 328 219 19 0 0
VODI 0 324 39 500 386 81 0 0
ODI 0 200 24 332 585 181 2 0
CDI 0 122 10 198 756 485 154 22
VCDI 0 168 18 337 1881 7301 24088 59929
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74462 12521 109 376 98 5 0 0
OW 74 448 46 387 134 15 0 0
VODI 0 301 39 403 304 44 1 0
ODI 0 156 20 327 583 155 19 0
CDI 0 170 10 275 698 386 54 13
VCDI 0 263 33 414 1761 6715 24424 60805
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73044 13706 123 453 105 0 0 0
OW 74 468 52 279 189 1 0 0
VODI 0 277 41 390 368 28 0 0
ODI 0 231 10 292 521 166 11 0
CDI 0 166 21 193 654 685 80 11
VCDI 0 114 16 247 1424 5526 25259 61823
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72349 13960 136 436 119 1 0 0
OW 60 437 63 354 177 7 0 0
VODI 0 213 30 399 386 38 0 0
ODI 0 129 15 203 472 109 15 0
CDI 0 135 11 117 751 429 95 5
VCDI 0 169 22 271 1489 5976 24276 63194
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72349 13978 143 494 135 3 0 0
OW 60 424 48 298 167 8 0 0
VODI 0 213 36 377 369 35 0 0
ODI 0 136 18 229 447 109 17 0
CDI 0 118 11 119 727 425 96 5
VCDI 0 174 21 263 1549 5980 24273 63194

Date: 2023-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72170 13966 143 552 176 29 0 0
OW 60 561 39 320 171 12 0 0
VODI 0 328 50 317 334 54 0 0
ODI 0 167 29 192 474 82 0 0
CDI 0 100 20 184 561 392 52 4
VCDI 0 59 8 282 1064 5107 20758 68231
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72170 13967 142 565 173 32 0 0
OW 60 552 45 310 164 16 0 0
VODI 0 328 44 305 321 44 0 0
ODI 0 169 27 204 464 97 0 0
CDI 0 101 23 185 557 404 57 4
VCDI 0 64 8 278 1101 5083 20753 68231

Date: 2023-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71971 14483 142 593 133 24 0 0
OW 76 496 70 397 117 5 0 0
VODI 0 232 46 396 461 21 0 0
ODI 0 70 25 196 597 64 0 0
CDI 0 25 13 176 632 417 30 6
VCDI 0 1 2 123 927 7002 20308 66771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71981 13969 137 610 171 28 0 0
OW 66 577 57 288 193 6 0 0
VODI 0 384 36 335 364 43 0 0
ODI 0 174 22 188 432 167 0 0
CDI 0 119 23 167 493 503 133 15
VCDI 0 84 23 293 1214 6786 20205 66762

Date: 2023-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73116 12947 119 581 149 0 0 0
OW 63 601 55 356 177 1 0 0
VODI 0 358 38 381 397 14 0 0
ODI 0 170 20 242 535 63 0 0
CDI 0 133 10 160 966 401 86 1
VCDI 0 351 43 511 2010 7121 20119 64753
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73066 12520 122 562 216 0 0 0
OW 113 588 32 297 218 7 0 0
VODI 0 434 39 305 390 44 0 0
ODI 0 256 17 226 379 157 1 0
CDI 0 206 19 172 722 429 71 0
VCDI 0 556 56 669 2309 6963 20133 64754

Date: 2023-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73311 12699 103 450 71 0 0 0
OW 63 679 50 327 148 3 0 0
VODI 2 496 40 344 345 12 0 0
ODI 0 247 17 268 474 42 0 0
CDI 0 204 23 180 716 472 23 0
VCDI 0 937 68 715 2237 8596 20310 62376
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73244 12361 116 570 137 0 0 0
OW 130 581 34 259 214 11 0 0
VODI 2 448 30 242 371 45 0 0
ODI 0 285 18 135 369 116 9 0
CDI 0 247 16 149 429 361 48 2
VCDI 0 1340 87 929 2471 8592 20276 62374


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