Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-01-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76206 11785 105 287 164 64 0 0
OW 75 885 44 277 108 33 4 0
VODI 0 716 43 349 221 33 7 0
ODI 0 265 30 310 295 64 8 0
CDI 0 141 18 269 452 283 72 7
VCDI 0 211 27 429 1704 5900 25787 59370
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74888 12379 110 332 148 41 0 0
OW 74 946 49 294 119 42 0 0
VODI 0 728 37 342 231 56 4 0
ODI 0 456 25 259 252 78 11 0
CDI 0 215 18 272 466 260 93 4
VCDI 0 311 30 546 1939 6492 23847 60654
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74340 13152 95 289 120 13 0 0
OW 74 786 74 331 84 8 0 0
VODI 0 545 43 480 331 20 0 0
ODI 0 229 10 347 389 65 0 0
CDI 0 192 15 258 499 307 18 9
VCDI 0 325 34 417 1783 7662 24501 59203
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74815 12894 80 189 86 11 0 0
OW 79 831 50 276 63 10 0 0
VODI 0 561 65 440 262 9 0 0
ODI 0 223 28 365 318 56 0 0
CDI 0 170 10 324 369 217 33 12
VCDI 0 410 33 390 2089 5967 21397 63916
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74815 12945 83 207 90 11 0 0
OW 79 735 49 236 61 11 0 0
VODI 0 589 60 401 229 16 0 0
ODI 0 269 29 382 324 49 0 0
CDI 0 162 13 338 383 206 34 12
VCDI 0 389 32 420 2100 5977 21396 63916

Date: 2023-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76317 11169 83 273 110 11 0 0
OW 88 859 59 270 129 21 0 0
VODI 1 599 45 404 380 51 0 0
ODI 0 273 24 353 319 118 2 0
CDI 0 207 9 297 386 422 86 17
VCDI 0 529 38 502 1786 6272 24061 60478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76316 11200 85 280 130 6 0 0
OW 89 800 51 242 129 35 0 0
VODI 1 601 47 373 311 43 0 0
ODI 0 310 26 367 325 117 3 0
CDI 0 233 13 324 394 415 91 17
VCDI 0 492 36 513 1821 6279 24055 60478

Date: 2023-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76117 11802 79 290 63 0 0 0
OW 73 736 54 280 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 446 54 762 456 19 0 0
ODI 0 182 30 337 655 56 0 0
CDI 0 164 18 290 620 438 24 2
VCDI 0 267 20 394 1393 7493 21693 61650
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76115 10838 73 341 124 0 0 0
OW 75 826 32 184 167 14 0 0
VODI 0 725 46 454 359 85 0 0
ODI 0 396 27 346 375 129 0 0
CDI 0 321 23 309 420 388 60 9
VCDI 0 491 54 719 1833 7390 21657 61643

Date: 2023-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75013 12601 107 419 86 1 0 0
OW 73 501 53 375 154 8 0 0
VODI 0 438 37 628 439 37 0 0
ODI 0 200 24 346 537 105 0 0
CDI 0 166 23 312 713 416 108 36
VCDI 0 277 30 495 2012 8504 22199 59575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75012 11536 76 306 141 4 0 0
OW 74 786 26 129 142 49 0 0
VODI 0 689 61 456 280 101 2 0
ODI 0 370 34 512 475 143 15 0
CDI 0 338 25 386 529 329 148 45
VCDI 0 464 52 786 2374 8445 22142 59566

Date: 2023-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74442 12652 121 469 134 3 0 0
OW 74 411 53 328 219 19 0 0
VODI 0 324 39 500 386 81 0 0
ODI 0 200 24 332 585 181 2 0
CDI 0 122 10 198 756 485 154 22
VCDI 0 168 18 337 1881 7301 24088 59929
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74456 11614 82 338 156 21 0 0
OW 60 649 32 165 98 73 0 0
VODI 0 507 51 345 164 114 9 0
ODI 0 353 28 340 357 152 48 0
CDI 0 303 26 329 779 299 199 36
VCDI 0 451 46 647 2407 7411 23988 59915


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