Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-01-12

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-01-16

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 188 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 65 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 6 19 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 6 31 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 33 4 53 8 0 0 0
VCDI 0 14 7 104 512 1027 4209 30501
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 56 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 57 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 72 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 81 10 11 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 55 15 197 519 1027 4209 30501

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 52 416 2665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 52 416 2665

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 175 2229 7577
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 175 2229 7574

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 108 1212 3062 1243
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 1216 3062 1243

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 67 920 6259
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 67 920 6259

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 31 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 45 0 1 8 28 13 2
VCDI 0 156 15 86 205 697 3398 1505
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 30 0 0 0 0 5 0
CDI 0 53 0 1 5 44 18 3
VCDI 0 187 15 86 208 682 3388 1504

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5372 3450 11 32 0 0 0 0
OW 2 356 9 26 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 311 26 193 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 91 4 197 172 5 0 0
CDI 0 14 5 50 171 29 0 0
VCDI 0 16 3 60 217 251 227 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5372 3477 12 32 0 0 0 0
OW 2 324 9 24 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 279 19 127 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 74 10 182 64 4 0 0
CDI 0 48 4 110 101 16 0 0
VCDI 0 36 4 83 410 265 227 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6034 2291 10 39 1 0 0 0
OW 0 128 4 39 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 112 4 31 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 66 2 60 31 0 0 0
CDI 0 59 6 54 79 11 0 0
VCDI 0 7 4 125 369 1038 1051 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6034 2154 7 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 130 4 27 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 4 26 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 75 3 29 27 3 0 0
CDI 0 70 3 35 38 5 0 0
VCDI 0 115 9 201 422 1041 1051 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8115 3206 30 107 81 17 0 0
OW 0 53 18 63 31 9 0 0
VODI 0 3 9 101 79 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 89 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 101 128 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 304 305 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8115 3194 43 162 137 39 0 0
OW 0 44 3 35 55 41 0 0
VODI 0 20 8 36 47 39 4 0
ODI 0 4 3 36 31 50 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 57 82 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 87 269 225 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 135 10 22 13 0 0 0
OW 0 13 8 30 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 48 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 65 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 52 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 429 4479 322
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 139 12 36 21 0 0 0
OW 0 7 5 20 36 3 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 20 44 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 29 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 36 42 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 418 4479 322

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 550 4213 3794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 555 4212 3794

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13063 3872 40 115 22 0 0 0
OW 0 165 27 174 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 9 138 141 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 152 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 148 74 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 1193 644 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13063 3639 33 108 20 0 0 0
OW 0 176 14 92 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 197 23 158 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 61 5 64 134 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 35 126 57 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 205 1218 648 0


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