Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-01-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77098 11388 88 395 178 109 17 0
OW 84 762 60 268 120 27 15 0
VODI 0 520 41 332 306 171 59 0
ODI 0 265 30 245 307 228 45 0
CDI 0 195 17 332 576 542 98 9
VCDI 0 212 25 410 1400 5666 21085 63323
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76550 11683 94 292 195 104 26 0
OW 76 810 50 255 143 23 11 0
VODI 0 517 45 385 254 128 37 0
ODI 0 288 28 249 253 240 55 0
CDI 0 174 15 393 504 389 167 7
VCDI 0 161 18 428 1609 4705 20031 65656
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76693 12216 97 260 141 85 11 0
OW 71 710 60 301 66 4 14 0
VODI 0 499 56 496 182 27 11 0
ODI 0 193 21 297 367 42 8 0
CDI 0 128 17 279 511 330 77 4
VCDI 0 97 11 299 1349 4580 18648 67790
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76388 12041 91 257 162 77 2 0
OW 74 845 55 247 84 30 12 0
VODI 0 586 44 406 206 25 13 0
ODI 0 216 28 296 330 58 5 0
CDI 0 139 15 243 441 287 94 22
VCDI 0 183 19 438 1606 6011 23304 61668
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76390 12046 101 279 161 82 5 0
OW 72 833 36 247 100 23 11 0
VODI 0 538 44 345 190 27 12 0
ODI 0 261 36 278 304 57 6 0
CDI 0 150 15 282 437 257 95 16
VCDI 0 182 20 456 1637 6042 23301 61674

Date: 2023-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75961 11677 113 317 155 46 0 0
OW 75 909 52 275 114 42 0 0
VODI 0 747 39 354 225 52 0 0
ODI 0 359 22 278 269 76 5 0
CDI 0 152 23 265 469 278 89 12
VCDI 0 273 29 455 1816 6055 26597 58373
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75958 11596 113 333 173 63 0 0
OW 78 921 55 270 101 31 0 0
VODI 0 708 34 338 219 49 0 0
ODI 0 413 15 225 235 81 4 0
CDI 0 206 27 263 434 275 93 11
VCDI 0 273 34 515 1886 6050 26594 58374

Date: 2023-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74364 13229 101 315 117 17 0 0
OW 75 802 68 333 100 9 0 0
VODI 0 575 54 507 329 29 0 0
ODI 0 226 12 359 509 70 0 0
CDI 0 151 15 166 580 349 35 3
VCDI 0 193 29 375 1612 6995 25153 59192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74363 12716 107 368 178 39 0 0
OW 76 761 35 198 129 44 0 0
VODI 0 737 55 367 227 59 4 0
ODI 0 316 21 318 286 78 13 0
CDI 0 253 18 231 386 264 105 7
VCDI 0 393 43 573 2041 6985 25066 59188

Date: 2023-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74636 12952 86 239 89 15 0 0
OW 80 821 71 323 76 5 0 0
VODI 0 544 57 462 299 9 0 0
ODI 0 217 14 390 334 45 0 0
CDI 0 188 14 319 422 250 17 12
VCDI 0 434 35 459 2078 6991 23487 60578
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74621 12555 88 298 154 41 0 0
OW 92 769 40 173 95 33 0 0
VODI 3 714 67 467 214 56 0 0
ODI 0 363 30 354 237 83 0 0
CDI 0 236 11 287 430 308 44 17
VCDI 0 519 41 613 2168 6794 23460 60573

Date: 2023-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75078 12577 90 215 101 10 0 0
OW 79 826 51 255 71 17 0 0
VODI 0 591 55 412 261 23 0 0
ODI 0 264 25 307 327 62 3 0
CDI 0 187 11 317 394 289 116 7
VCDI 0 444 34 514 1853 5464 22027 63691
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75070 12243 75 229 161 59 0 0
OW 87 846 38 149 88 30 0 0
VODI 0 802 60 374 279 44 0 0
ODI 0 346 37 324 266 87 3 0
CDI 0 240 17 315 357 337 130 5
VCDI 0 412 39 629 1856 5308 22013 63693


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