Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-01-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78524 10892 94 463 251 333 0 0
OW 82 916 50 227 129 97 0 0
VODI 0 585 50 391 346 104 0 0
ODI 0 247 20 373 572 218 3 0
CDI 0 134 15 221 925 689 124 15
VCDI 0 185 29 330 1653 7215 24368 56178
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78364 10598 98 418 269 285 19 0
OW 116 1045 39 231 157 101 0 0
VODI 5 764 41 308 330 130 3 0
ODI 0 412 16 214 486 189 13 0
CDI 0 289 17 188 806 671 101 21
VCDI 0 408 59 523 2100 6448 21523 59243
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78211 10974 94 408 190 133 0 0
OW 138 699 33 208 211 38 25 0
VODI 0 603 23 228 372 67 50 0
ODI 0 431 26 183 404 191 21 0
CDI 0 215 33 275 536 824 62 15
VCDI 0 224 30 518 1673 5606 23121 59955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76965 11736 77 339 183 146 0 0
OW 72 843 55 203 130 32 8 0
VODI 0 565 48 340 304 100 57 0
ODI 0 297 17 326 343 174 28 0
CDI 0 243 20 382 533 565 116 15
VCDI 0 232 24 393 1545 6083 22824 60685
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76966 11834 79 355 174 154 0 0
OW 71 739 56 188 142 38 9 0
VODI 0 558 45 309 304 93 63 0
ODI 0 297 17 344 342 178 21 0
CDI 0 234 18 352 542 602 119 15
VCDI 0 254 26 435 1534 6035 22821 60685

Date: 2023-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76611 11799 99 370 164 121 0 0
OW 79 726 54 286 119 24 2 0
VODI 0 462 47 398 278 138 40 0
ODI 0 266 26 276 230 276 58 1
CDI 0 180 17 412 560 409 143 22
VCDI 0 144 17 392 1502 5009 19612 65679
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76608 11918 94 383 184 129 0 0
OW 82 629 58 295 119 27 4 0
VODI 0 402 48 363 232 133 49 0
ODI 0 266 25 269 239 252 50 0
CDI 0 210 19 408 544 449 170 21
VCDI 0 152 16 416 1535 4987 19582 65681

Date: 2023-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76373 12641 83 244 144 99 11 0
OW 71 626 78 342 63 15 13 0
VODI 0 365 58 645 230 29 12 0
ODI 0 147 14 297 485 63 17 0
CDI 0 104 14 337 727 590 53 7
VCDI 0 65 8 128 1118 4392 18437 67903
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76372 11755 76 276 216 121 36 0
OW 72 955 58 244 85 37 11 0
VODI 0 510 44 386 152 92 50 0
ODI 0 309 29 253 167 157 113 0
CDI 0 214 27 375 400 313 197 25
VCDI 0 205 21 459 1747 4468 18136 67885

Date: 2023-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76701 12078 90 236 147 74 16 0
OW 74 791 61 243 58 13 16 0
VODI 0 557 47 416 192 26 11 0
ODI 0 205 30 281 348 41 13 0
CDI 0 150 17 235 447 257 68 21
VCDI 0 159 20 403 1415 5398 21133 64560
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76699 11332 74 250 203 91 47 0
OW 76 1122 54 233 58 30 11 0
VODI 0 638 45 310 213 79 46 0
ODI 0 300 25 253 207 137 69 0
CDI 0 249 27 211 432 318 116 11
VCDI 0 299 40 557 1494 5154 20968 64570

Date: 2023-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76206 11785 105 287 164 64 0 0
OW 75 885 44 277 108 33 4 0
VODI 0 716 43 349 221 33 7 0
ODI 0 265 30 310 295 64 8 0
CDI 0 141 18 269 452 283 72 7
VCDI 0 211 27 429 1704 5900 25787 59370
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76205 11324 93 357 232 121 20 0
OW 75 1146 44 249 113 44 3 0
VODI 1 752 46 346 272 95 20 0
ODI 0 284 13 217 258 97 88 0
CDI 0 185 21 196 379 281 168 95
VCDI 0 312 50 556 1690 5739 25579 59282


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