Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-12-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79390 10244 88 405 227 302 0 0
OW 63 425 62 307 112 48 1 0
VODI 0 163 26 312 277 28 5 0
ODI 0 42 6 154 368 51 7 0
CDI 0 31 3 51 452 150 11 0
VCDI 0 15 8 79 761 4428 5317 4681
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78695 10662 81 329 261 351 0 0
OW 68 468 41 248 144 51 1 0
VODI 0 192 48 309 250 53 7 0
ODI 0 48 4 174 233 110 4 0
CDI 0 37 2 82 349 241 10 0
VCDI 0 9 10 71 605 3410 6120 5322
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78098 11437 80 334 187 288 0 0
OW 69 497 42 201 90 65 0 0
VODI 0 173 33 304 212 45 0 0
ODI 0 64 5 154 323 65 0 0
CDI 0 35 5 61 362 230 7 0
VCDI 0 14 8 106 622 3704 5964 5216
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78570 10386 88 402 240 348 0 0
OW 78 699 41 148 72 91 0 0
VODI 0 400 40 259 132 67 0 0
ODI 0 117 14 231 259 55 0 0
CDI 0 57 13 159 392 172 2 0
VCDI 0 50 11 161 1176 3589 6412 4169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78566 10550 89 405 255 361 0 0
OW 80 579 42 152 63 98 0 0
VODI 2 339 35 275 132 56 0 0
ODI 0 116 14 179 269 58 0 0
CDI 0 69 14 168 363 174 4 0
VCDI 0 56 13 181 1189 3575 6410 4169

Date: 2022-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78189 10630 80 349 198 281 0 0
OW 97 806 30 144 65 82 0 0
VODI 2 517 46 210 123 76 0 0
ODI 0 240 18 199 166 43 3 0
CDI 0 97 13 210 310 88 12 0
VCDI 0 71 13 278 1444 3031 5868 5071
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78183 10791 83 369 204 312 0 0
OW 102 683 27 136 60 69 0 0
VODI 3 442 44 217 125 68 0 0
ODI 0 244 20 173 179 39 4 0
CDI 0 95 10 201 286 92 10 0
VCDI 0 106 16 294 1452 3021 5869 5071

Date: 2023-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78468 10524 91 353 190 107 0 0
OW 113 624 47 176 105 56 39 0
VODI 0 450 19 218 174 96 22 0
ODI 0 299 13 134 214 111 7 0
CDI 0 201 28 160 390 164 21 0
VCDI 0 179 19 300 1178 2399 6178 5233
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78463 9989 89 370 237 234 63 0
OW 110 672 36 116 97 94 1 0
VODI 8 743 29 174 145 86 8 0
ODI 0 325 15 158 148 64 12 0
CDI 0 312 17 139 294 140 16 0
VCDI 0 236 31 384 1330 2315 6167 5233

Date: 2023-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77133 11431 90 389 175 143 0 0
OW 88 717 36 197 116 34 13 0
VODI 0 493 29 272 196 59 49 0
ODI 0 280 11 228 201 104 21 0
CDI 0 176 17 269 361 190 31 0
VCDI 0 166 22 327 1098 2315 6168 5455
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77104 10876 74 377 234 254 81 0
OW 117 742 33 135 83 65 42 0
VODI 0 698 37 401 143 66 21 0
ODI 0 278 16 240 186 58 28 0
CDI 0 345 18 160 315 102 30 0
VCDI 0 324 27 369 1186 2300 6080 5455

Date: 2023-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77084 11146 88 395 178 109 17 0
OW 84 699 57 267 119 15 15 0
VODI 0 445 37 322 274 43 59 0
ODI 0 232 24 211 261 84 44 0
CDI 0 182 14 254 514 183 38 1
VCDI 0 181 20 283 1022 2928 6096 5075
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77048 10567 70 356 250 172 116 0
OW 93 724 41 211 75 74 58 0
VODI 26 568 60 341 290 53 28 0
ODI 1 292 19 204 267 41 24 0
CDI 0 328 22 210 354 77 23 5
VCDI 0 406 28 410 1132 2945 6020 5071


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