Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-12-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 6 1 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 2 64 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 139 87 17 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 98 540 151 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 461 879 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 182 2680 10714 29602
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 35 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 171 8 34 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 277 20 170 76 23 0 0
ODI 0 127 16 313 243 56 0 0
CDI 0 65 6 246 477 289 11 5
VCDI 0 0 0 19 510 3341 10635 28663
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 43 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 122 8 30 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 11 229 207 29 0 0
ODI 0 37 6 205 273 275 20 0
CDI 0 2 0 12 334 450 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 559 2892 9688 30277
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 6 37 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 5 103 145 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 103 426 188 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 280 354 175 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 112 2956 10088 30760
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 27 2 14 6 0 0 0
OW 0 19 5 63 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 79 176 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 341 141 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 306 343 140 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 2968 10119 30760

Date: 2022-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 1 19 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 43 129 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 269 130 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 423 395 59 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 144 2575 10103 31499
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 27 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 34 162 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 227 117 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 417 350 61 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 144 2610 10095 31496

Date: 2023-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 177 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 129 704 78 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 188 2499 9440 32528
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 55 2 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 98 100 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 130 381 137 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 227 2769 9306 32525

Date: 2023-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 29 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 52 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 106 385 55 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 122 2693 11662 30717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 30 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 36 43 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 365 83 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 157 2696 11632 30723

Date: 2023-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 40 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 209 55 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 100 1781 10919 32719
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 189 90 43
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 1789 10885 32684


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