Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-12-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 166 8 81 3 0 0 0
OW 0 162 13 249 102 15 1 0
VODI 0 40 15 253 267 251 26 0
ODI 0 61 7 174 628 558 19 0
CDI 0 7 6 65 570 1195 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 675 5640 10654 23930
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 70 4 66 1 0 0 0
OW 0 134 12 162 146 15 5 0
VODI 0 45 12 169 404 166 87 0
ODI 0 55 4 155 440 421 113 0
CDI 0 22 7 67 289 871 352 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 195 4705 10751 25905
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 16 2 44 3 0 0 0
OW 0 60 9 85 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 10 286 434 13 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 127 863 284 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 297 725 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 148 3622 12235 26356
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7 1 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 2 100 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 3 175 142 21 0 0
ODI 0 16 4 106 540 411 38 0
CDI 0 1 1 17 370 832 243 21
VCDI 0 0 0 15 117 2990 11241 28374
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8 1 35 4 0 0 0
OW 0 15 2 70 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 3 181 174 51 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 99 517 423 9 0
CDI 0 2 1 30 368 825 157 37
VCDI 0 0 0 14 111 2955 11356 28358

Date: 2022-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 2 39 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 94 7 85 17 2 0 0
ODI 0 149 32 309 318 49 0 0
CDI 0 78 23 230 696 421 4 0
VCDI 0 28 4 47 269 3444 9776 29692
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 9 0 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 1 42 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 8 77 23 2 0 0
ODI 0 156 31 257 242 79 0 0
CDI 0 48 11 212 699 421 6 0
VCDI 0 63 17 124 336 3414 9774 29692

Date: 2022-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 97 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 107 6 38 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 219 28 416 159 0 0 0
ODI 0 85 7 269 412 62 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 27 456 333 6 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 410 2727 10801 29183
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 45 1 8 10 0 0 0
OW 0 141 8 30 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 148 13 187 89 33 0 0
ODI 0 128 13 214 252 74 0 0
CDI 0 47 7 244 371 248 38 2
VCDI 0 2 0 67 682 2767 10769 29187

Date: 2022-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 67 8 54 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 14 178 117 35 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 200 410 135 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 297 405 182 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 249 3272 10262 29861
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 38 2 6 1 6 0 0
VODI 0 66 15 170 93 83 38 0
ODI 0 33 7 159 238 85 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 400 342 142 10
VCDI 0 0 0 14 341 3331 10230 29851

Date: 2022-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4 1 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 2 16 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 4 85 122 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 276 137 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 408 407 68 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 2870 9951 31244
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 1 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 2 49 84 58 24 0
ODI 0 1 4 76 185 110 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 368 310 113 20
VCDI 0 0 0 13 254 2942 9847 31239


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