Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79557 12287 157 611 303 261 7 0
OW 60 691 52 594 297 57 19 0
VODI 0 259 61 614 718 317 50 0
ODI 0 94 20 387 1177 605 31 0
CDI 0 8 7 212 1138 1795 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 119 1530 11406 21313 50124
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78932 12487 119 663 329 226 0 0
OW 61 669 57 510 370 62 6 0
VODI 0 321 53 539 823 259 98 0
ODI 0 121 20 384 846 596 138 0
CDI 0 43 18 218 718 1630 451 1
VCDI 0 2 2 234 1177 10641 24360 48864
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78373 12862 123 604 269 225 0 0
OW 61 499 82 489 235 36 1 0
VODI 0 168 51 813 879 53 4 0
ODI 0 29 9 342 1449 416 10 0
CDI 0 11 8 102 853 1406 238 10
VCDI 0 16 6 130 879 8687 22409 54211
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78895 11853 120 497 266 345 0 0
OW 63 455 73 480 162 76 0 0
VODI 0 187 40 668 503 74 3 0
ODI 0 52 13 312 1088 481 44 0
CDI 0 13 8 106 965 1154 286 121
VCDI 0 0 1 92 1080 8284 23387 54801
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78895 11926 128 536 290 360 0 0
OW 63 420 66 447 163 69 0 0
VODI 0 150 42 653 599 101 4 0
ODI 0 54 10 322 1003 554 18 0
CDI 0 10 8 110 967 1119 200 153
VCDI 0 0 1 87 1042 8211 23498 54769

Date: 2022-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78645 11491 101 442 268 367 3 0
OW 65 623 80 378 145 65 10 0
VODI 0 307 46 528 379 42 11 0
ODI 0 204 41 492 788 129 16 0
CDI 0 116 30 312 1243 862 56 15
VCDI 0 41 15 196 1064 8862 24670 53900
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78646 11590 99 441 275 373 6 0
OW 64 554 78 402 118 53 8 0
VODI 0 269 51 510 445 54 11 0
ODI 0 207 39 438 701 209 16 0
CDI 0 87 20 287 1220 809 85 15
VCDI 0 75 26 270 1128 8829 24640 53900

Date: 2022-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78725 11790 90 379 189 301 0 0
OW 63 629 62 331 130 65 0 0
VODI 0 395 70 834 473 66 0 0
ODI 0 157 17 461 884 181 0 0
CDI 0 34 8 106 998 820 18 14
VCDI 0 67 9 148 1112 6750 24433 56239
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78715 11259 74 337 269 358 0 0
OW 73 873 45 271 140 59 0 0
VODI 0 489 71 554 340 121 1 0
ODI 0 242 37 449 633 191 7 0
CDI 0 126 13 402 833 633 72 27
VCDI 0 83 16 246 1571 6821 24371 56226

Date: 2022-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77901 11958 99 490 240 335 0 0
OW 73 711 60 319 138 97 0 0
VODI 0 327 58 537 364 128 0 0
ODI 0 96 14 412 769 278 18 0
CDI 0 57 6 148 743 796 198 13
VCDI 0 58 16 189 1359 7666 19430 60947
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77877 11517 83 444 296 474 0 0
OW 97 729 34 216 157 84 0 0
VODI 0 548 78 444 301 239 45 0
ODI 0 177 25 434 438 203 77 0
CDI 0 110 14 278 765 648 244 47
VCDI 0 126 19 279 1656 7652 19280 60913

Date: 2022-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78524 10892 94 463 251 333 0 0
OW 82 916 50 227 129 97 0 0
VODI 0 585 50 391 346 104 0 0
ODI 0 247 20 373 572 218 3 0
CDI 0 134 15 221 925 689 124 15
VCDI 0 185 29 330 1653 7215 24368 56178
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78486 10381 93 469 347 429 0 0
OW 108 749 35 199 141 112 0 0
VODI 12 621 45 292 338 184 24 0
ODI 0 387 21 245 408 238 53 0
CDI 0 350 16 230 694 644 178 41
VCDI 0 471 48 570 1948 7049 24240 56152


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