Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2022-12-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-12

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 147 9 79 8 0 0 0
OW 0 74 3 30 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 2 42 70 3 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 29 62 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 67 43 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 136 2013 8634 25335
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 137 9 75 8 0 0 0
OW 0 60 3 28 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 2 39 63 4 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 32 67 12 0 0
CDI 0 2 3 29 59 48 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 151 2010 8634 25335

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 125 872 2134
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 125 872 2129

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 33 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 158 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1339 3903 4490
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 106 4 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1379 3899 4487

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 249 1 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 102 5 17 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 11 65 219 2 0 0
ODI 0 11 5 77 451 169 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 110 791 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 1460 1626 145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 154 1 21 97 0 0 0
OW 0 87 2 13 186 30 0 0
VODI 0 88 4 52 219 214 0 0
ODI 0 78 7 23 141 356 0 0
CDI 0 22 8 50 88 444 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 84 1378 1626 145

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 36 1122 6081
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 35 1119 6078

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 5226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 5226

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 859 22 122 28 0 0 0
OW 0 83 14 104 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 5 144 172 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 245 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 312 29 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 176 788 2893 164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 829 18 164 77 0 0 0
OW 0 130 18 70 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 5 46 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 108 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 148 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 415 805 2900 164

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7698 2670 25 57 0 0 0 0
OW 0 71 8 81 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 5 70 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 107 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 77 50 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 190 87 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7698 2632 27 59 0 0 0 0
OW 0 93 6 97 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 4 60 99 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 10 84 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 65 46 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 188 87 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6148 2476 15 70 2 0 0 0
OW 0 36 12 99 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 5 81 81 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 116 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 139 117 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 1683 465 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6148 2461 18 72 3 0 0 0
OW 0 47 10 95 19 1 0 0
VODI 0 14 4 71 77 12 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 41 111 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 117 72 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 96 1704 465 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9235 2515 39 277 404 215 2 0
OW 0 3 3 40 16 34 14 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 37 33 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 29 20 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 36 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9235 2518 42 307 438 279 19 0
OW 0 0 0 15 19 8 6 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 31 37 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 844 6 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 75 11 73 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 3 86 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 2 36 117 1 0 0
CDI 0 5 6 36 92 89 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 165 645 3051 298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 627 1 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 139 3 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 11 59 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 35 4 75 46 0 0 0
CDI 0 31 2 49 88 29 1 0
VCDI 0 7 7 80 251 706 3051 298

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 42 1 26 25 2 0 0
OW 0 42 9 92 51 31 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 142 272 243 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 793 862 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 572 1269 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 230 1205 2507 142
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 39 3 51 107 216 0 0
OW 0 43 6 156 287 314 0 0
VODI 0 5 1 70 320 533 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 183 669 49 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 620 883 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 426 997 2307 142

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15720 2960 21 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 98 35 124 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 8 195 69 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 192 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 117 20 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 265 202 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15720 2770 13 12 15 0 0 0
OW 0 199 26 75 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 87 23 157 78 12 0 0
ODI 0 23 2 113 97 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 143 3 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 57 282 202 0


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