Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-12-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1444 3527 40 170 70 0 0 0
OW 59 845 62 392 260 6 0 0
VODI 1 425 42 420 417 177 0 0
ODI 0 127 21 172 380 206 1 0
CDI 0 19 4 83 374 515 57 0
VCDI 0 2 6 53 297 3144 6170 25878
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 473 3387 32 124 86 0 0 0
OW 0 1180 54 451 285 63 0 0
VODI 0 426 44 449 489 326 0 0
ODI 0 148 24 143 480 232 54 0
CDI 0 30 8 61 388 522 119 0
VCDI 0 5 5 40 295 4530 8756 22157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 43 3288 49 242 1 0 0 0
OW 8 802 60 716 287 0 0 0
VODI 0 308 42 610 832 97 0 0
ODI 0 87 5 150 476 408 68 0
CDI 0 29 5 80 361 942 128 6
VCDI 0 0 0 67 607 5558 8772 20732
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1228 47 290 222 0 0 0
OW 0 369 44 721 628 40 0 0
VODI 0 123 5 447 1263 468 0 0
ODI 0 53 10 69 764 553 56 0
CDI 0 6 3 47 293 974 270 1
VCDI 0 0 0 8 360 4252 11741 20511
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1269 55 385 296 0 0 0
OW 0 341 34 612 663 60 0 0
VODI 0 126 7 468 1157 497 0 0
ODI 0 38 11 76 738 481 54 0
CDI 0 5 2 32 350 916 285 1
VCDI 0 0 0 9 326 4333 11728 20511

Date: 2022-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 560 10 51 133 32 0 0
OW 0 329 39 489 572 60 0 0
VODI 0 79 4 271 978 514 0 0
ODI 0 44 5 96 869 794 26 0
CDI 0 8 4 76 861 918 198 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 343 3121 9348 25021
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 560 23 167 236 38 0 0
OW 0 305 24 384 563 84 0 0
VODI 0 101 6 277 822 534 0 0
ODI 0 44 5 88 830 760 42 0
CDI 0 10 4 67 905 871 184 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 400 3152 9346 25016

Date: 2022-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 520 9 55 25 2 0 0
OW 0 162 25 180 72 31 0 0
VODI 0 71 11 287 535 245 0 0
ODI 0 11 5 159 1361 1054 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 731 2220 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 285 4467 13636 19684
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 341 9 77 219 216 0 0
OW 0 198 15 201 504 344 0 0
VODI 0 122 11 177 607 759 1 0
ODI 0 81 7 102 371 1048 49 0
CDI 0 22 8 102 773 1435 154 8
VCDI 0 0 0 45 535 4217 13432 19676

Date: 2022-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 337 21 85 2 1 0 0
OW 0 156 22 161 102 11 0 0
VODI 0 35 10 251 399 166 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 95 1192 460 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 1514 929 8 15
VCDI 0 0 0 19 731 5240 11944 21905
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 195 13 74 124 124 0 0
OW 0 232 18 229 358 180 0 0
VODI 0 71 15 123 721 327 0 0
ODI 0 20 7 108 711 661 36 0
CDI 0 12 1 55 997 1008 83 22
VCDI 0 3 1 70 1029 4507 11833 21898

Date: 2022-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 166 8 81 3 0 0 0
OW 0 162 13 249 102 15 1 0
VODI 0 40 15 253 267 251 26 0
ODI 0 61 7 174 628 558 19 0
CDI 0 7 6 65 570 1195 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 675 5640 10654 23930
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 110 10 88 91 156 1 0
OW 0 186 13 214 195 260 20 0
VODI 0 77 13 285 293 506 48 0
ODI 0 52 9 110 244 638 88 0
CDI 0 11 4 52 455 1167 149 5
VCDI 0 0 0 86 967 4932 10406 23925


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