Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84890 15621 133 518 298 85 23 0
OW 94 1399 102 606 343 21 0 0
VODI 1 752 97 668 633 196 0 0
ODI 0 225 47 391 688 259 1 0
CDI 0 69 12 284 781 792 117 8
VCDI 0 31 14 247 1440 8572 18426 48164
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83657 15162 122 599 406 102 0 0
OW 50 1800 85 657 419 71 0 0
VODI 0 831 101 744 739 338 0 0
ODI 0 295 55 384 798 279 54 0
CDI 0 100 12 279 894 706 200 22
VCDI 0 38 18 309 1489 10853 21767 42613
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82507 15568 172 940 422 137 0 0
OW 46 1295 104 1033 443 33 0 0
VODI 0 613 79 977 1185 132 0 0
ODI 0 198 30 359 939 500 68 0
CDI 0 71 19 263 814 1329 131 36
VCDI 0 48 6 266 1516 10995 20728 43046
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82423 12608 183 907 684 206 6 0
OW 51 845 80 1022 817 59 5 0
VODI 0 442 35 739 1603 541 1 0
ODI 0 175 33 298 1252 651 56 0
CDI 0 57 15 197 889 1423 293 17
VCDI 0 62 5 188 898 9769 22229 45284
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82423 12662 192 1049 740 206 6 0
OW 51 829 68 892 882 84 5 0
VODI 0 458 39 747 1510 562 1 0
ODI 0 138 35 286 1183 595 54 0
CDI 0 47 12 189 978 1372 308 16
VCDI 0 55 5 188 850 9830 22216 45285

Date: 2022-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80997 12658 146 708 596 351 7 0
OW 52 814 78 842 801 155 4 0
VODI 0 312 48 549 1359 631 7 0
ODI 0 116 22 276 1264 967 26 0
CDI 0 52 6 179 1360 1422 222 12
VCDI 0 37 7 138 813 7895 19232 51887
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80997 12626 161 871 726 375 8 0
OW 52 814 67 710 780 164 3 0
VODI 0 363 47 557 1223 648 7 0
ODI 0 108 20 266 1231 939 42 0
CDI 0 50 5 157 1358 1417 206 16
VCDI 0 28 7 131 875 7878 19232 51883

Date: 2022-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80596 12769 139 694 467 217 2 0
OW 58 584 100 660 206 65 14 0
VODI 0 206 39 833 1042 281 8 0
ODI 0 34 10 370 2145 1103 7 0
CDI 0 5 6 111 1515 2608 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 861 9751 25462 44015
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80599 12174 132 770 745 495 19 0
OW 55 798 74 564 727 353 6 0
VODI 0 411 54 557 1043 814 11 0
ODI 0 153 14 360 858 1104 49 0
CDI 0 55 13 270 1345 1650 164 11
VCDI 0 7 7 194 1518 9609 25262 44004

Date: 2022-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80373 12234 163 682 396 159 2 0
OW 70 533 87 556 294 41 25 0
VODI 0 154 44 707 890 247 9 0
ODI 0 33 4 233 1794 683 6 0
CDI 0 13 7 129 2105 1575 113 53
VCDI 0 0 0 58 1209 9990 23808 47569
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80373 11715 145 670 546 304 29 0
OW 70 764 84 580 579 222 7 0
VODI 0 342 48 518 1152 486 9 0
ODI 0 94 16 286 1211 830 44 0
CDI 0 47 10 155 1462 1546 147 87
VCDI 0 5 2 156 1738 9307 23727 47535

Date: 2022-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79557 12287 157 611 303 261 7 0
OW 60 691 52 594 297 57 19 0
VODI 0 259 61 614 718 317 50 0
ODI 0 94 20 387 1177 605 31 0
CDI 0 8 7 212 1138 1795 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 119 1530 11406 21313 50124
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79557 11748 151 597 417 464 40 0
OW 60 808 54 578 401 310 31 0
VODI 0 421 43 586 824 567 59 0
ODI 0 227 28 281 751 765 93 0
CDI 0 86 13 183 969 1785 222 60
VCDI 0 49 8 312 1801 10550 21085 50064


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