Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-12-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3186 3995 45 447 162 0 0 0
OW 76 963 53 331 134 3 0 0
VODI 18 202 26 353 300 24 0 0
ODI 0 20 5 143 390 85 0 0
CDI 0 8 2 40 422 219 34 5
VCDI 0 0 0 16 484 4152 10016 19507
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2752 3589 48 296 162 1 0 0
OW 97 931 57 479 261 16 0 0
VODI 43 233 26 195 487 102 0 0
ODI 0 41 4 90 235 289 13 0
CDI 0 22 2 25 171 499 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 223 2930 10564 20859
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2716 3240 29 164 57 5 0 0
OW 86 684 72 369 166 59 0 0
VODI 12 214 26 582 413 98 0 0
ODI 0 32 4 82 609 166 0 0
CDI 0 6 2 23 261 640 14 0
VCDI 0 0 2 9 147 3369 9583 21925
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2389 2990 23 105 12 0 0 0
OW 44 862 62 400 170 9 0 0
VODI 8 467 44 430 410 120 0 0
ODI 0 96 15 148 433 139 0 0
CDI 0 16 9 41 297 651 3 0
VCDI 0 22 2 27 222 2970 5900 26330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2402 3282 44 220 31 1 0 0
OW 29 694 47 361 165 17 0 0
VODI 10 381 40 383 409 103 0 0
ODI 0 59 13 115 407 113 0 0
CDI 0 18 9 46 297 614 5 0
VCDI 0 19 2 26 235 3041 5898 26330

Date: 2022-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1248 3145 40 156 101 0 0 0
OW 26 1057 49 421 247 28 0 0
VODI 1 371 40 378 560 294 0 0
ODI 0 137 23 152 327 311 0 0
CDI 0 21 6 74 285 573 148 4
VCDI 0 1 2 15 333 4319 9798 21175
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1241 3453 56 278 206 7 0 0
OW 33 814 45 375 183 45 0 0
VODI 1 358 33 353 514 253 0 0
ODI 0 87 14 114 377 288 1 0
CDI 0 19 9 59 261 541 141 2
VCDI 0 1 3 17 312 4391 9804 21177

Date: 2022-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 245 3786 37 80 6 0 0 0
OW 0 936 74 547 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 440 42 807 576 41 0 0
ODI 0 75 8 187 651 323 61 0
CDI 0 20 2 75 368 934 144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 555 5130 10237 19372
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 245 3531 62 254 128 33 0 0
OW 0 986 25 302 194 57 11 0
VODI 0 655 49 596 450 218 31 0
ODI 0 83 21 326 410 305 39 0
CDI 0 2 6 166 380 368 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 91 662 5447 10291 19372

Date: 2022-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 2016 66 398 0 0 0 0
OW 0 825 66 796 420 10 0 0
VODI 0 248 26 534 1277 107 1 0
ODI 0 59 6 140 592 366 39 0
CDI 0 10 5 66 299 839 342 9
VCDI 0 0 0 22 563 4843 10707 20166
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3 2061 71 612 253 0 0 0
OW 0 789 58 514 414 101 2 0
VODI 0 288 28 518 1014 298 105 0
ODI 0 20 12 185 703 433 165 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 280 709 209 9
VCDI 0 0 0 46 487 4624 10608 20166

Date: 2022-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 727 38 101 213 66 0 0
OW 0 352 32 478 668 100 0 0
VODI 0 82 9 200 1106 645 11 0
ODI 0 48 4 66 786 904 36 0
CDI 0 8 4 37 246 1103 278 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 3694 10519 23174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 788 45 249 494 191 0 0
OW 0 234 22 321 586 238 15 0
VODI 0 137 10 218 1199 716 37 0
ODI 0 58 9 84 547 987 254 0
CDI 0 0 1 10 203 1199 307 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 113 3181 10231 23165


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