Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-11-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-18:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 88479 18304 155 508 135 17 0 0 OW 31 840 90 631 188 17 0 0 VODI 0 407 49 629 561 5 0 0 ODI 0 156 37 397 791 43 2 0 CDI 0 17 13 309 1067 375 54 10 VCDI 0 0 1 160 2076 10331 19657 40506	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 86240 18937 183 709 199 18 0 0 OW 49 874 96 612 449 23 9 0 VODI 0 273 59 657 748 148 3 0 ODI 0 74 11 299 749 258 3 0 CDI 0 34 2 139 1045 724 27 18 VCDI 0 24 6 120 1591 10507 21034 40097	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 86149 18024 209 886 181 11 0 0 OW 100 807 94 652 274 0 0 0 VODI 13 177 51 642 887 3 0 0 ODI 0 27 4 191 1148 246 5 6 CDI 0 19 2 79 977 1201 21 15 VCDI 0 17 6 106 1156 9844 15347 47471	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85765 17077 185 1001 343 30 0 0 OW 97 1096 107 605 282 4 0 0 VODI 12 253 57 697 747 44 0 0 ODI 1 20 4 255 943 173 0 0 CDI 0 11 1 73 1039 800 106 12 VCDI 0 13 5 55 978 7491 20294 46372	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85758 17388 203 1066 346 30 0 0 OW 95 793 95 642 302 7 0 0 VODI 22 245 48 624 739 35 0 0 ODI 0 20 6 227 936 152 2 0 CDI 0 11 2 72 1012 813 81 5 VCDI 0 13 5 55 997 7505 20317 46379

Date: 2022-11-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85424 16396 191 847 341 57 0 0 OW 98 1483 96 675 325 18 0 0 VODI 21 413 66 585 634 81 0 0 ODI 0 57 9 318 804 219 5 0 CDI 0 21 2 96 847 910 73 42 VCDI 0 30 7 85 862 5871 22752 46287	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85426 16800 207 964 365 58 0 0 OW 87 1056 94 585 342 19 0 0 VODI 30 428 50 579 633 104 0 0 ODI 0 65 12 296 773 192 5 0 CDI 0 22 1 100 781 857 56 37 VCDI 0 29 7 82 919 5926 22769 46292

Date: 2022-11-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85240 16465 199 678 283 115 12 0 OW 104 774 111 824 301 46 0 0 VODI 6 201 42 838 861 64 0 0 ODI 0 34 10 173 1104 358 0 0 CDI 0 11 3 45 662 1285 117 4 VCDI 0 0 0 34 566 6092 21500 47886	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85161 15962 205 922 403 146 12 0 OW 125 988 83 607 482 38 0 0 VODI 64 440 49 545 806 152 0 0 ODI 0 72 19 300 551 424 11 0 CDI 0 19 6 130 639 759 140 23 VCDI 0 4 3 88 896 6441 21466 47867

Date: 2022-11-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 84706 16217 153 504 330 116 5 0 OW 103 1308 145 695 231 58 0 0 VODI 11 486 68 800 641 127 6 0 ODI 0 93 22 333 807 212 0 0 CDI 0 22 8 128 875 1052 42 8 VCDI 0 5 5 99 1130 8634 17763 49100	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 84712 15651 165 667 396 138 5 0 OW 89 1451 104 521 251 91 4 0 VODI 17 781 87 693 640 161 2 0 ODI 2 168 22 376 691 294 1 0 CDI 0 48 11 127 806 802 43 0 VCDI 0 32 12 175 1230 8713 17761 49108

Date: 2022-12-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 84890 15621 133 518 298 85 23 0 OW 94 1399 102 606 343 21 0 0 VODI 1 752 97 668 633 196 0 0 ODI 0 225 47 391 688 259 1 0 CDI 0 69 12 284 781 792 117 8 VCDI 0 31 14 247 1440 8572 18426 48164	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 84806 14534 131 535 386 101 23 0 OW 120 1636 70 467 293 53 0 0 VODI 52 1084 65 622 668 319 0 0 ODI 7 497 72 307 513 366 1 0 CDI 0 250 40 363 605 657 50 1 VCDI 0 96 27 420 1718 8429 18493 48171

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