Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-11-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85744 9461 84 436 139 1 0 0
OW 27 275 35 314 117 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 9 225 304 15 0 0
ODI 0 17 8 76 353 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 65 377 273 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 320 1834 3842 4584
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84395 10279 98 361 150 20 0 0
OW 28 285 28 344 211 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 18 292 338 6 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 91 335 61 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 45 430 259 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 267 1504 4116 5028
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84526 10017 95 427 154 4 0 0
OW 29 108 27 341 123 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 16 314 262 16 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 108 383 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 550 218 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 314 2031 3711 5186
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83556 10735 102 289 117 5 0 0
OW 29 207 37 314 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 20 338 233 4 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 219 327 17 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 80 461 168 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 698 2684 3848 4433
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83556 10733 103 279 120 5 0 0
OW 29 214 37 305 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 19 363 261 4 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 189 317 18 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 102 425 121 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 724 2730 3848 4433

Date: 2022-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83952 10042 98 339 119 10 0 0
OW 29 243 39 267 95 2 0 0
VODI 0 118 23 285 266 3 0 0
ODI 0 27 4 196 278 23 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 108 512 153 0 0
VCDI 0 2 1 41 810 2929 3958 4121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83952 10052 103 339 125 10 0 0
OW 29 246 34 237 81 2 0 0
VODI 0 105 22 301 254 3 0 0
ODI 0 26 6 200 281 26 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 103 508 126 0 0
VCDI 0 2 1 56 831 2953 3958 4121

Date: 2022-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83168 10761 111 380 130 18 0 0
OW 31 197 28 308 151 1 0 0
VODI 0 49 16 275 332 5 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 119 371 105 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 60 381 424 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 642 2355 3787 4878
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83168 10602 97 326 139 18 0 0
OW 31 244 25 184 118 1 0 0
VODI 0 128 23 254 254 4 0 0
ODI 0 30 11 186 261 56 0 0
CDI 0 8 1 129 359 340 0 0
VCDI 0 1 1 71 876 2489 3787 4878

Date: 2022-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83433 10230 114 453 150 16 0 0
OW 33 159 27 262 183 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 11 215 377 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 108 424 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 401 622 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 288 2463 4559 4437
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83432 10026 101 332 119 16 0 0
OW 34 257 25 221 99 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 19 251 304 7 0 0
ODI 0 26 7 152 385 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 455 447 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 461 2655 4565 4437

Date: 2022-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82448 11004 116 390 153 38 0 0
OW 35 186 34 245 144 12 0 0
VODI 0 46 16 256 256 39 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 93 374 72 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 468 453 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 451 1742 4966 4940
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82448 10824 109 307 124 36 0 0
OW 35 262 25 200 92 4 0 0
VODI 0 130 25 270 200 27 0 0
ODI 0 22 7 155 295 62 0 0
CDI 0 6 3 70 448 204 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 687 2023 5011 4940


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