Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-11-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-11:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 91950 17160 138 646 215 26 0 0 OW 27 843 80 662 211 20 0 0 VODI 0 410 27 569 590 76 0 0 ODI 0 172 17 266 672 203 13 0 CDI 1 35 8 160 846 869 153 4 VCDI 0 2 1 63 957 8480 23635 36841	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-13:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 90325 17345 162 607 241 47 0 0 OW 76 876 74 682 330 24 0 0 VODI 44 314 35 550 738 51 5 0 ODI 20 236 12 224 622 232 12 0 CDI 2 189 12 136 731 793 138 22 VCDI 0 3 0 44 671 5817 22411 42195	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-15:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 90400 17151 161 707 237 26 0 0 OW 30 572 70 556 336 9 0 0 VODI 0 281 38 637 555 41 3 0 ODI 0 92 13 309 753 109 1 0 CDI 0 12 9 256 1006 653 77 72 VCDI 0 4 0 90 1025 6306 24037 40414	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-17:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 88773 18487 150 463 138 17 0 0 OW 32 790 88 612 152 6 0 0 VODI 0 355 54 752 474 9 0 0 ODI 0 79 19 495 741 31 0 0 CDI 0 26 9 258 1082 345 61 0 VCDI 0 10 5 143 2064 9382 20627 40319	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 88773 18578 166 538 162 21 0 0 OW 32 709 76 528 165 2 0 0 VODI 0 342 50 744 487 9 0 0 ODI 0 76 17 456 695 35 2 0 CDI 0 30 11 274 1018 286 57 0 VCDI 0 12 5 183 2124 9437 20629 40319

Date: 2022-11-19:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 87792 18118 188 687 156 15 0 0 OW 41 802 91 672 358 24 2 0 VODI 0 379 48 579 748 39 1 0 ODI 0 89 19 356 808 136 4 0 CDI 0 23 7 218 1034 536 44 24 VCDI 0 3 3 65 2053 11354 20562 38970	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 87797 18220 196 778 228 25 1 0 OW 36 727 80 532 328 15 1 0 VODI 0 347 47 609 677 63 1 0 ODI 0 98 21 356 749 124 6 0 CDI 0 18 9 197 1057 497 39 22 VCDI 0 4 3 105 2118 11380 20565 38972

Date: 2022-11-21:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85695 19082 198 699 143 18 0 0 OW 81 778 100 711 274 1 0 0 VODI 3 172 47 756 913 7 0 0 ODI 0 34 10 210 1207 320 13 0 CDI 0 12 4 99 951 1263 23 3 VCDI 0 9 3 85 1262 9482 17265 45115	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85726 18856 215 848 258 18 13 0 OW 53 773 67 494 382 13 5 0 VODI 0 297 46 550 770 194 1 0 ODI 0 88 22 290 719 269 2 0 CDI 0 36 4 171 887 730 24 10 VCDI 0 37 8 207 1734 9867 17256 45108

Date: 2022-11-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 86124 17407 205 821 347 16 0 0 OW 100 931 96 628 281 1 0 0 VODI 20 189 50 701 786 46 0 0 ODI 0 7 4 245 1003 204 0 0 CDI 0 8 1 82 933 1157 63 18 VCDI 0 14 5 56 922 8134 18411 47032	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 86129 17163 220 853 315 16 0 11 OW 104 900 59 496 314 5 4 4 VODI 11 389 54 558 767 119 4 2 ODI 0 78 19 309 775 262 5 2 CDI 0 8 3 178 876 939 59 14 VCDI 0 18 6 139 1225 8217 18402 47017

Date: 2022-11-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85634 16747 183 899 385 38 0 0 OW 111 1271 98 614 301 15 0 0 VODI 18 291 55 692 629 74 0 0 ODI 0 31 8 296 857 199 0 0 CDI 0 18 3 87 993 779 112 13 VCDI 0 14 5 52 1043 6569 21907 46007	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85622 16577 202 920 357 47 0 0 OW 118 1063 53 527 259 25 2 13 VODI 22 538 63 610 653 81 5 4 ODI 1 145 20 327 741 239 1 2 CDI 0 36 7 147 844 623 71 25 VCDI 0 13 7 109 1354 6659 21940 45976

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