Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-11-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6671 5534 38 197 74 0 0 0
OW 65 659 22 221 163 33 0 0
VODI 11 173 35 241 288 236 0 0
ODI 0 38 14 273 348 319 0 0
CDI 0 2 5 128 732 535 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 689 3574 6279 18238
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6391 5272 29 103 83 6 0 0
OW 34 674 9 67 71 26 0 0
VODI 45 618 41 190 230 159 0 0
ODI 0 63 17 258 222 346 0 0
CDI 0 4 6 222 440 660 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 624 4585 6605 17723
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5960 6784 37 151 75 1 0 0
OW 46 345 29 154 66 5 0 0
VODI 15 80 22 215 167 36 0 0
ODI 2 22 8 121 393 135 0 0
CDI 0 9 3 52 529 619 132 0
VCDI 0 1 2 11 183 4363 6721 18372
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4975 7001 45 136 38 23 0 0
OW 0 438 36 210 64 5 0 0
VODI 0 338 24 282 167 29 0 0
ODI 1 67 6 150 270 89 3 0
CDI 0 16 7 87 409 358 12 3
VCDI 0 0 0 51 674 5261 9270 15321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4973 7109 52 189 32 24 0 0
OW 2 392 29 172 103 1 0 0
VODI 0 258 22 249 157 31 0 0
ODI 1 80 6 161 275 90 3 0
CDI 0 21 9 87 390 405 31 4
VCDI 0 0 0 58 665 5214 9251 15320

Date: 2022-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4865 6227 45 145 76 20 0 0
OW 1 518 33 244 51 17 0 0
VODI 0 299 10 229 226 27 0 0
ODI 0 257 8 143 226 90 9 0
CDI 1 107 7 59 287 321 15 0
VCDI 0 3 1 26 442 3578 8257 18996
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4864 6367 50 191 77 20 0 0
OW 2 402 27 231 84 13 0 0
VODI 0 261 9 186 219 33 0 0
ODI 0 210 7 114 197 106 9 0
CDI 1 166 9 87 254 308 13 0
VCDI 0 5 2 37 477 3573 8259 18996

Date: 2022-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5436 5382 41 207 50 22 0 0
OW 2 356 36 248 92 9 0 0
VODI 0 209 17 159 277 32 0 0
ODI 0 143 13 152 317 105 0 0
CDI 0 74 12 90 244 379 2 0
VCDI 0 17 6 64 259 2917 8240 20257
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5435 5158 50 229 99 40 0 0
OW 2 439 24 204 98 23 0 0
VODI 1 284 19 174 243 52 6 0
ODI 0 152 3 73 185 109 19 0
CDI 0 97 17 126 222 207 31 0
VCDI 0 51 12 114 392 3033 8186 20257

Date: 2022-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5043 5626 36 100 13 17 0 0
OW 7 494 44 197 102 8 0 0
VODI 0 209 31 274 188 1 1 0
ODI 0 53 12 206 319 7 0 0
CDI 0 18 8 145 627 128 3 0
VCDI 0 4 4 80 909 4105 9274 17573
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5029 5521 48 187 133 24 0 0
OW 21 479 19 119 159 8 1 0
VODI 0 250 44 249 156 35 0 0
ODI 0 105 6 202 242 55 1 0
CDI 0 44 14 118 389 107 4 0
VCDI 0 5 4 127 1079 4037 9272 17573

Date: 2022-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4310 6109 47 181 17 10 0 0
OW 2 458 45 277 106 14 0 0
VODI 0 218 25 289 276 3 0 0
ODI 0 81 16 134 422 18 2 0
CDI 0 12 7 120 534 134 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 1076 5677 8667 16512
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4305 5822 51 229 147 35 1 0
OW 7 545 30 233 98 16 2 0
VODI 0 291 30 225 253 24 2 0
ODI 0 136 11 121 338 19 0 0
CDI 0 69 12 144 426 82 2 0
VCDI 0 15 6 113 1169 5680 8665 16512


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