Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-10-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107471 17819 173 827 333 68 0 0
OW 34 1983 157 1079 426 32 0 0
VODI 2 878 57 974 1260 170 0 0
ODI 0 114 32 534 1370 648 0 0
CDI 0 13 6 264 1059 1707 52 0
VCDI 0 2 1 82 747 6008 16843 23823
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106387 16811 190 866 467 50 0 0
OW 38 1876 132 1196 799 55 0 0
VODI 0 853 67 848 1563 376 5 0
ODI 0 145 22 474 984 888 65 0
CDI 0 18 8 245 897 1881 284 0
VCDI 0 0 1 84 730 5295 18086 24362
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105083 17200 227 1078 406 44 0 0
OW 9 1047 138 1353 373 55 0 0
VODI 0 212 61 1091 1565 132 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 214 1946 786 5 0
CDI 0 0 1 128 692 2885 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 493 4957 18061 26534
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101792 17459 170 717 860 247 0 0
OW 74 1203 136 1066 818 179 0 0
VODI 0 159 35 943 1879 509 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 235 1457 971 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 101 907 2228 296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 457 4509 18467 29146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101810 17760 193 825 988 248 0 0
OW 56 874 110 971 754 168 0 0
VODI 0 185 37 944 1769 463 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 238 1468 922 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 903 2270 430 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 496 4572 18331 29146

Date: 2022-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100440 16343 156 707 453 313 0 0
OW 98 1271 125 1243 858 501 0 0
VODI 0 251 37 675 1422 1115 7 0
ODI 0 61 8 197 1014 1574 136 0
CDI 0 48 6 99 753 1515 810 5
VCDI 0 26 6 106 718 4543 18523 30885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100469 16644 188 1001 651 345 0 0
OW 59 953 89 922 704 433 0 0
VODI 10 275 40 681 1442 1164 1 0
ODI 0 59 8 220 934 1475 150 0
CDI 0 47 6 102 699 1605 871 7
VCDI 0 22 7 101 788 4539 18454 30883

Date: 2022-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100011 16417 129 725 178 22 0 0
OW 16 701 93 720 215 100 0 0
VODI 0 174 35 927 995 219 0 0
ODI 0 51 5 204 1764 1088 20 0
CDI 0 38 5 48 764 4099 639 34
VCDI 0 54 6 81 298 4130 19320 32723
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99999 15871 135 1064 479 320 0 0
OW 28 982 67 637 794 515 14 0
VODI 0 339 37 512 1053 1269 104 0
ODI 0 89 13 205 635 1766 317 13
CDI 0 66 11 163 528 1525 764 52
VCDI 0 88 10 124 725 4263 18780 32692

Date: 2022-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97359 17593 147 866 197 12 0 0
OW 55 754 82 777 404 81 0 0
VODI 0 331 31 688 884 323 0 0
ODI 0 78 8 245 1092 925 14 6
CDI 0 54 4 87 1279 2492 228 124
VCDI 0 35 5 136 818 7523 18816 32495
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97245 16590 139 970 448 179 0 0
OW 169 1464 70 885 742 420 1 0
VODI 0 496 31 402 1054 1197 30 0
ODI 0 153 19 148 788 1785 212 29
CDI 0 70 8 183 693 1745 566 143
VCDI 0 72 10 211 949 6030 18249 32453

Date: 2022-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96480 16388 114 632 218 9 0 0
OW 81 1287 69 774 938 135 0 0
VODI 11 279 44 360 675 727 10 0
ODI 0 86 15 345 475 875 191 0
CDI 0 44 10 188 958 1442 603 0
VCDI 0 66 8 128 1065 6539 20711 34068
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96447 15080 84 456 314 154 1 0
OW 64 1511 57 600 848 632 110 0
VODI 61 1176 62 602 921 1127 297 0
ODI 0 191 27 334 775 1664 409 0
CDI 0 84 16 228 661 1650 1071 9
VCDI 0 108 14 207 810 4500 19627 34059


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