Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-10-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95542 4161 11 78 35 0 0 0
OW 0 255 10 23 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 11 122 15 4 0 0
ODI 0 47 13 128 44 4 0 0
CDI 0 27 4 145 232 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 421 1892 2909 2796
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95507 3915 12 89 74 0 0 0
OW 0 231 8 39 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 159 7 64 39 1 0 0
ODI 0 82 11 67 52 7 0 0
CDI 0 65 15 100 103 27 0 0
VCDI 0 12 4 110 416 2063 4446 1355
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94565 4771 27 185 157 45 0 0
OW 0 98 10 48 17 4 0 0
VODI 0 82 8 91 36 1 0 0
ODI 0 37 5 71 62 7 0 0
CDI 0 28 9 85 173 70 1 0
VCDI 0 1 0 28 230 1610 2697 3841
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94432 4818 24 167 102 30 0 0
OW 0 151 7 47 10 3 0 0
VODI 0 117 11 70 34 2 0 0
ODI 0 55 8 75 54 0 0 0
CDI 0 52 7 94 116 57 0 0
VCDI 0 6 1 78 281 1491 2441 4259
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94432 4844 27 184 104 30 0 0
OW 0 139 6 45 14 3 0 0
VODI 0 100 11 65 33 2 0 0
ODI 0 55 6 73 49 0 0 0
CDI 0 55 7 91 127 62 0 0
VCDI 0 6 1 73 270 1486 2441 4259

Date: 2022-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93605 5303 27 141 154 35 0 0
OW 0 140 14 91 22 1 0 0
VODI 0 85 13 87 53 2 0 0
ODI 0 35 4 90 79 2 0 0
CDI 0 27 4 73 138 79 0 0
VCDI 0 3 1 52 240 1241 3915 3344
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93605 5324 27 148 160 35 0 0
OW 0 115 17 92 24 1 0 0
VODI 0 90 10 89 55 2 0 0
ODI 0 30 4 83 71 4 0 0
CDI 0 31 3 64 145 81 0 0
VCDI 0 3 2 58 231 1237 3915 3344

Date: 2022-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93296 5438 31 152 193 33 0 0
OW 0 123 10 87 25 14 0 0
VODI 0 59 13 110 74 8 0 0
ODI 0 22 3 83 116 18 0 0
CDI 0 13 3 67 192 142 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 151 827 3272 4510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93296 5389 29 189 211 48 0 0
OW 0 120 12 60 51 4 0 0
VODI 0 82 7 80 75 13 0 0
ODI 0 37 6 63 75 20 0 0
CDI 0 25 5 63 151 111 7 0
VCDI 0 2 1 56 188 846 3268 4510

Date: 2022-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93043 5522 36 162 209 23 0 0
OW 0 132 11 70 18 18 0 0
VODI 0 76 12 121 58 5 0 0
ODI 0 27 7 84 101 6 0 0
CDI 0 9 1 63 177 59 0 0
VCDI 0 7 2 45 300 1478 4025 3193
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93043 5476 35 163 211 39 0 0
OW 0 126 12 67 30 5 0 0
VODI 0 91 9 114 58 5 0 0
ODI 0 38 7 72 89 6 0 0
CDI 0 22 3 72 145 58 4 0
VCDI 0 20 3 57 330 1476 4021 3193

Date: 2022-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93158 5388 31 106 116 68 0 0
OW 0 128 9 83 18 26 0 0
VODI 0 99 11 99 27 12 0 0
ODI 0 18 12 88 72 11 0 0
CDI 0 7 2 97 146 29 0 0
VCDI 0 2 1 54 335 863 3344 4640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93158 5314 29 125 126 93 0 0
OW 0 159 7 66 13 11 0 0
VODI 0 93 15 107 35 5 0 0
ODI 0 41 7 67 71 8 0 0
CDI 0 19 4 66 128 31 1 0
VCDI 0 16 4 96 341 861 3343 4640


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