Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-10-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117744 20038 108 365 99 14 0 0
OW 49 1826 145 651 73 0 0 0
VODI 1 438 96 1270 642 49 0 0
ODI 0 64 20 542 1303 184 0 0
CDI 0 28 6 181 1689 1014 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 1061 10179 19273 7762
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116347 18903 131 492 176 0 0 0
OW 395 2306 137 669 323 3 0 0
VODI 27 657 82 997 1096 140 0 0
ODI 0 102 17 277 1379 425 0 0
CDI 0 66 16 164 1209 1168 49 0
VCDI 0 12 4 157 927 9157 22371 6667
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115096 19975 172 752 263 47 0 0
OW 13 1319 144 1072 286 10 0 0
VODI 16 199 39 974 1347 28 0 0
ODI 0 39 6 150 1974 561 16 0
CDI 0 28 9 90 863 2213 300 1
VCDI 0 1 0 28 333 4991 17228 16465
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113059 19816 179 770 185 30 0 0
OW 25 1427 144 1111 581 24 0 0
VODI 20 219 47 806 2029 278 0 0
ODI 0 55 8 133 1180 1086 21 0
CDI 0 52 7 110 768 1968 350 0
VCDI 0 6 1 78 369 4201 15152 20753
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113050 19834 197 927 285 43 0 0
OW 33 1351 123 994 667 21 0 0
VODI 21 273 52 763 1899 355 0 0
ODI 0 56 6 147 1041 973 28 0
CDI 0 55 7 104 832 1856 391 3
VCDI 0 6 1 73 388 4339 15104 20750

Date: 2022-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111208 19448 168 715 305 35 0 0
OW 19 1838 148 1068 696 53 0 0
VODI 17 288 62 760 1678 734 0 0
ODI 6 55 10 183 888 1350 71 0
CDI 0 28 6 125 485 2091 421 0
VCDI 0 3 1 64 490 4572 18763 18196
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111197 19827 203 859 412 36 0 0
OW 27 1305 123 953 644 84 0 0
VODI 17 444 53 744 1824 811 2 0
ODI 9 49 10 168 638 1298 88 0
CDI 0 32 4 113 525 1943 476 0
VCDI 0 3 2 78 499 4663 18689 18196

Date: 2022-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107588 21884 169 599 266 33 0 0
OW 12 1374 169 822 161 15 0 0
VODI 11 196 61 1434 1023 40 0 0
ODI 12 23 3 184 2252 439 0 0
CDI 0 13 3 71 794 3836 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 208 3838 17926 21384
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107563 21411 202 1005 609 56 0 0
OW 37 1469 112 814 608 140 0 0
VODI 11 537 75 980 1666 955 27 0
ODI 12 46 10 170 932 1225 165 0
CDI 0 25 5 97 556 1715 464 0
VCDI 0 2 1 56 333 4110 17463 21384

Date: 2022-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107055 19891 192 901 449 23 0 0
OW 2 1673 142 884 361 32 0 0
VODI 0 529 70 989 1336 171 0 0
ODI 0 44 17 384 1406 702 0 0
CDI 0 9 1 131 976 2459 126 2
VCDI 0 7 2 46 502 6259 20732 18543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107056 20054 226 1185 571 47 0 0
OW 1 1425 120 881 688 57 0 0
VODI 0 575 62 911 1691 907 19 0
ODI 0 57 10 195 969 1652 102 0
CDI 0 22 3 106 573 1808 394 15
VCDI 0 20 3 57 538 5175 20343 18530

Date: 2022-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107471 17819 173 827 333 68 0 0
OW 34 1983 157 1079 426 32 0 0
VODI 2 878 57 974 1260 170 0 0
ODI 0 114 32 534 1370 648 0 0
CDI 0 13 6 264 1059 1707 52 0
VCDI 0 2 1 82 747 6008 16843 23823
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107497 18126 201 1106 448 102 0 0
OW 10 1757 130 1067 669 53 0 0
VODI 0 787 70 1081 1571 547 0 0
ODI 0 94 14 240 1233 1487 51 0
CDI 0 29 7 149 654 1908 188 110
VCDI 0 16 4 117 620 4536 16656 23713


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