Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-10-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120794 19447 140 507 220 29 0 0
OW 0 1612 118 779 552 49 0 0
VODI 0 259 73 783 1287 187 0 0
ODI 0 31 8 258 1263 528 1 0
CDI 0 7 5 79 1127 2177 446 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 136 8721 24139 1283
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119608 19247 143 484 199 0 0 0
OW 3 1962 141 827 493 11 0 0
VODI 0 298 64 828 1376 224 0 0
ODI 0 53 7 244 1259 663 0 0
CDI 0 26 7 91 812 1906 381 1
VCDI 0 2 1 20 154 6650 21617 7246
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117670 21777 175 518 75 0 0 0
OW 3 868 150 818 162 0 0 0
VODI 0 173 50 1005 978 11 0 0
ODI 0 29 5 196 1964 244 6 3
CDI 0 19 0 40 1294 2211 109 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 5995 18664 11747
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117719 20599 142 393 110 0 0 0
OW 34 1443 143 704 184 0 0 0
VODI 0 353 84 1035 817 65 0 0
ODI 0 39 13 393 1422 358 0 0
CDI 0 8 4 157 1413 1658 101 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 418 8854 18251 10130
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117724 20788 161 459 124 0 0 0
OW 29 1257 123 625 139 0 0 0
VODI 0 362 88 1031 844 68 0 0
ODI 0 32 11 418 1349 456 1 0
CDI 0 3 3 149 1529 1692 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 379 8719 18249 10134

Date: 2022-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116902 19509 134 374 179 0 0 0
OW 263 2241 130 684 183 0 0 0
VODI 14 461 88 1113 967 74 0 0
ODI 0 88 11 443 1336 266 4 0
CDI 0 52 10 171 1552 864 77 0
VCDI 0 2 1 111 1292 10308 21861 5283
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117020 19694 147 393 202 0 0 0
OW 145 1867 98 610 134 0 0 0
VODI 14 669 105 1102 1008 87 0 0
ODI 0 78 14 497 1297 326 3 0
CDI 0 43 9 183 1515 893 87 0
VCDI 0 2 1 111 1353 10206 21852 5283

Date: 2022-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116764 19339 121 562 167 0 0 0
OW 29 1444 166 871 99 0 0 0
VODI 15 194 61 1269 1032 1 15 0
ODI 0 37 6 162 2512 281 26 0
CDI 0 25 7 92 788 2541 123 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 350 6486 18224 13222
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116353 18213 139 643 232 0 0 0
OW 360 1726 101 709 293 8 0 0
VODI 91 943 85 1032 1218 296 0 0
ODI 4 93 23 295 1330 575 19 0
CDI 0 51 9 187 1061 1223 123 0
VCDI 0 13 4 107 814 7207 18246 13222

Date: 2022-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114500 19375 168 793 197 60 0 0
OW 22 1410 146 1104 448 32 0 0
VODI 20 335 64 915 1610 92 0 0
ODI 0 47 8 122 1749 677 2 0
CDI 0 43 5 110 943 1964 310 0
VCDI 0 2 3 58 329 4553 16558 18274
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114452 18095 158 797 286 82 0 0
OW 57 1769 104 811 453 44 0 0
VODI 33 1123 97 1017 1451 406 11 0
ODI 0 138 23 261 1357 741 135 0
CDI 0 64 8 127 1101 1104 329 0
VCDI 0 23 4 89 628 5001 16395 18274

Date: 2022-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111585 20123 186 772 210 49 0 0
OW 30 1553 143 1103 711 50 0 0
VODI 24 262 51 736 1657 746 7 0
ODI 0 45 11 167 822 1365 74 0
CDI 0 30 3 116 352 2171 468 0
VCDI 0 8 2 61 443 3602 17430 19880
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111502 18957 171 794 388 107 0 0
OW 79 1766 119 777 580 181 0 0
VODI 57 1074 72 847 1306 773 53 0
ODI 1 146 21 276 1054 1263 301 0
CDI 0 61 12 166 448 1425 733 10
VCDI 0 17 1 95 419 4234 16892 19870


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