Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96092 3572 22 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 166 17 155 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 65 19 262 71 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 199 184 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 69 366 200 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 395 3825 3318 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96520 3282 11 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 263 7 99 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 161 7 141 106 0 0 0
ODI 0 68 10 174 110 26 0 0
CDI 0 19 11 95 387 147 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 473 2617 3869 399
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96151 3915 16 110 33 0 0 0
OW 0 141 12 114 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 11 101 240 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 41 278 48 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 43 256 625 137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1934 4759 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95992 3954 18 98 30 0 0 0
OW 0 153 10 120 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 5 94 203 1 0 0
ODI 0 28 7 31 264 17 0 0
CDI 0 15 6 66 297 373 165 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 20 997 5070 928
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95992 3974 18 117 39 0 0 0
OW 0 117 10 112 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 5 84 194 0 0 0
ODI 0 32 6 23 285 18 0 0
CDI 0 21 7 67 281 356 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 26 1014 5068 928

Date: 2022-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95226 4639 27 61 5 0 0 0
OW 0 186 11 115 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 9 98 143 0 0 0
ODI 0 35 5 54 213 9 0 0
CDI 0 17 7 49 378 250 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 55 1128 6065 88
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95226 4628 27 66 6 0 0 0
OW 0 179 11 113 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 9 103 126 0 0 0
ODI 0 44 3 41 235 8 0 0
CDI 0 24 7 50 359 232 100 0
VCDI 0 0 2 10 72 1147 6070 88

Date: 2022-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95508 4354 21 65 13 0 0 0
OW 0 158 18 86 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 12 139 84 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 4 78 284 1 0 0
CDI 0 9 5 41 356 342 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 968 3604 2811
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95508 4215 24 75 16 0 0 0
OW 0 202 9 69 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 117 12 119 115 0 0 0
ODI 0 48 4 53 201 11 0 0
CDI 0 35 7 64 300 214 108 0
VCDI 0 0 4 29 105 1086 3516 2811

Date: 2022-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95206 4712 17 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 188 12 63 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 12 154 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 27 7 110 127 0 0 0
CDI 0 15 3 90 461 61 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 120 2499 3502 1505
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95206 4497 15 73 3 0 0 0
OW 0 208 6 34 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 185 12 117 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 73 8 111 78 0 0 0
CDI 0 51 7 101 374 126 0 0
VCDI 0 16 3 56 244 2434 3502 1505

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95542 4161 11 78 35 0 0 0
OW 0 255 10 23 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 11 122 15 4 0 0
ODI 0 47 13 128 44 4 0 0
CDI 0 27 4 145 232 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 421 1892 2909 2796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95542 4003 12 85 39 0 0 0
OW 0 228 4 24 11 1 0 0
VODI 0 236 10 78 23 6 0 0
ODI 0 112 12 123 43 3 0 0
CDI 0 44 10 139 276 45 0 0
VCDI 0 6 1 60 358 1861 2909 2796


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