Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18421 7153 71 353 152 4 0 0
OW 0 907 38 362 149 2 0 0
VODI 0 101 31 740 386 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 149 720 158 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 309 1204 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 20 2034 8691 3540
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17759 6622 89 478 130 0 0 0
OW 0 891 47 409 387 39 0 0
VODI 0 131 27 483 585 108 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 38 826 243 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 236 1022 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 21 3673 9415 2145
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16742 7650 104 470 257 37 0 0
OW 0 153 32 286 285 45 0 0
VODI 0 20 7 331 665 108 3 0
ODI 0 1 0 22 768 363 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 110 1078 333 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 19 3062 11097 1810
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16228 7617 101 343 200 78 0 0
OW 0 413 37 332 201 136 0 0
VODI 0 57 13 290 556 219 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 44 573 352 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 339 826 378 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 3661 11533 1309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16228 7667 105 363 216 93 0 0
OW 0 339 26 266 193 161 0 0
VODI 0 80 20 352 532 285 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 28 566 280 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 356 671 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 3782 11644 1309

Date: 2022-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15826 7602 83 353 209 0 0 0
OW 0 665 50 329 295 15 0 0
VODI 0 99 28 375 507 127 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 96 680 229 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 262 932 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 3633 10073 3318
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15819 7705 90 395 179 11 0 0
OW 7 488 38 240 346 19 0 0
VODI 0 171 33 451 597 140 0 0
ODI 0 11 0 67 543 221 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 243 738 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 3807 10077 3318

Date: 2022-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15385 8162 120 313 85 0 0 0
OW 0 210 37 320 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 14 343 505 3 0 10
ODI 0 3 0 25 1060 178 16 17
CDI 0 0 0 0 171 1451 87 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 2632 8528 5996
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15377 7708 114 369 123 0 0 0
OW 8 460 27 257 448 8 0 0
VODI 0 218 21 230 694 161 0 0
ODI 0 24 9 108 400 357 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 22 219 776 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 84 2962 8580 6034

Date: 2022-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14217 9020 115 321 111 0 0 0
OW 3 231 59 365 205 5 0 0
VODI 0 34 10 224 604 44 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 43 596 379 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 465 1063 63 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 3247 8751 5647
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14220 8448 113 335 175 3 0 0
OW 0 630 40 215 321 81 0 0
VODI 0 199 31 283 528 191 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 101 639 306 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 268 750 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 87 3407 8783 5650

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15040 8264 61 182 64 14 0 0
OW 19 739 59 237 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 189 44 537 194 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 7 327 522 48 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 36 870 482 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 597 4740 8141 4346
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15059 7649 61 200 67 14 0 0
OW 0 915 51 291 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 482 38 503 293 0 0 0
ODI 0 124 10 185 583 145 0 0
CDI 0 30 9 87 634 344 26 0
VCDI 0 10 4 76 673 4781 8156 4346


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