Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-09-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 124082 18524 137 570 162 4 0 0 OW 0 2014 105 780 212 2 0 0 VODI 0 373 89 1443 904 118 0 0 ODI 0 12 6 439 1385 487 10 0 CDI 0 0 1 86 948 3133 736 0 VCDI 0 0 0 6 428 7474 18358 4020	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 123838 17015 133 648 167 0 0 0 OW 0 2378 104 815 508 43 0 0 VODI 0 622 71 992 1143 162 0 0 ODI 0 92 22 310 1390 619 0 0 CDI 0 19 11 149 926 2279 461 0 VCDI 0 0 0 25 514 10837 18200 2555	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 122447 19511 165 688 309 37 0 0 OW 0 924 121 810 391 45 0 0 VODI 0 93 48 894 1213 122 3 0 ODI 0 18 4 141 1571 516 5 0 CDI 0 1 2 43 801 3225 580 0 VCDI 0 0 0 3 28 10172 20307 1810	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 121421 19243 148 603 230 78 0 0 OW 0 1321 115 953 383 136 0 0 VODI 0 173 57 769 1277 224 0 0 ODI 0 31 8 190 1300 518 12 0 CDI 0 15 6 80 976 2490 712 0 VCDI 0 0 0 1 59 7973 23309 2237	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 121421 19683 180 803 265 93 0 0 OW 0 864 90 787 393 161 0 0 VODI 0 179 50 780 1269 314 0 0 ODI 0 36 7 140 1274 488 14 0 CDI 0 21 7 79 952 2318 585 0 VCDI 0 0 0 7 72 8045 23434 2237

Date: 2022-10-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 119284 20355 133 507 219 0 0 0 OW 0 1759 128 862 541 15 0 0 VODI 0 285 72 854 1187 257 0 0 ODI 0 54 11 248 1236 576 0 0 CDI 0 17 7 74 910 1955 498 0 VCDI 0 0 0 6 106 6768 24099 4025	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 119277 20792 156 678 234 11 0 0 OW 7 1241 103 706 607 19 0 0 VODI 0 347 74 885 1266 293 0 0 ODI 0 66 9 195 1051 637 1 0 CDI 0 24 7 77 849 1682 601 0 VCDI 0 0 2 10 192 6929 23995 4025

Date: 2022-10-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 119024 20582 167 449 98 0 0 0 OW 8 921 133 713 152 0 0 0 VODI 0 170 64 1137 914 4 0 10 ODI 0 22 4 145 2381 212 16 17 CDI 0 9 5 41 786 2901 148 11 VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 6010 19525 10234	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 119024 19962 187 633 191 6 0 0 OW 8 1157 94 724 673 18 0 0 VODI 0 473 65 713 1432 225 0 0 ODI 0 75 16 272 1008 769 14 0 CDI 0 37 7 99 799 1552 587 0 VCDI 0 0 4 44 263 6557 19088 10272

Date: 2022-10-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 117112 21754 177 472 111 0 0 0 OW 4 1070 132 774 271 5 0 0 VODI 0 216 63 855 1112 54 0 0 ODI 0 29 8 252 1513 528 0 0 CDI 0 15 3 92 1273 1949 75 3 VCDI 0 0 0 3 176 8277 19547 9123	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 117105 20646 185 629 270 21 0 0 OW 11 1661 89 578 532 133 0 0 VODI 0 611 86 680 1263 324 9 0 ODI 0 99 13 345 1059 734 34 0 CDI 0 51 7 156 869 1440 391 0 VCDI 0 16 3 60 463 8161 19188 9126

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 117744 20038 108 365 99 14 0 0 OW 49 1826 145 651 73 0 0 0 VODI 1 438 96 1270 642 49 0 0 ODI 0 64 20 542 1303 184 0 0 CDI 0 28 6 181 1689 1014 98 0 VCDI 0 0 0 36 1061 10179 19273 7762	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 117691 19147 143 522 234 29 0 0 OW 100 2043 101 647 193 73 0 0 VODI 3 877 80 1066 969 221 31 0 ODI 0 237 26 408 1093 415 92 0 CDI 0 74 20 263 1209 901 245 0 VCDI 0 16 5 139 1169 9801 19003 7762

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